695 
 WTNT44 KNHC 230247
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
 1100 PM AST WED SEP 22 2010
  
 LISA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
 HOURS.  DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
 CENTER AND IN A BAND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
 CIRCULATION.  A 2340 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 30 KT
 OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS
 LOWERED TO 35 KT...AND THIS MIGHT BE GENEROUS.  LISA COULD
 STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS OVER
 MARGINALLY WARM WATER AND IN LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  AFTER
 THAT TIME...WESTERLY SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
 AND THAT SHOULD PROMOTE STEADY WEAKENING.
  
 LISA HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE
 INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/4.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL LIKELY
 CONTINUE TO MEANDER FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT REMAINS
 CAUGHT IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS NEAR THE BASE OF A SHARP
 DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.  A TURN TO THE
 NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST
 BEYOND 24 HOURS AS THE TROUGH CUTS-OFF AND SOME RIDGING DEVELOPS
 TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
 ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...DUE TO THE
 INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION AND TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
 THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      23/0300Z 17.7N  29.6W    35 KT
  12HR VT     23/1200Z 17.8N  29.5W    35 KT
  24HR VT     24/0000Z 18.0N  29.8W    40 KT
  36HR VT     24/1200Z 18.4N  30.3W    45 KT
  48HR VT     25/0000Z 19.1N  31.0W    45 KT
  72HR VT     26/0000Z 21.0N  32.5W    45 KT
  96HR VT     27/0000Z 23.0N  35.0W    40 KT
 120HR VT     28/0000Z 25.5N  38.0W    30 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI