738 
 WTNT41 KNHC 290238
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005
  
 THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEEN IN DIRECT CONTACT WITH THE
 METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF COLOMBIA AND HAS BEEN RECEIVING WEATHER
 DATA FROM SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. DATA FROM THE ISLAND OF
 PROVIDENCIA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF BETA IS MOVING OVER OR VERY
 CLOSE TO THE ISLAND. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE AT 00Z WAS 995 MB AND
 WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 30 KNOTS. THE WINDS WERE 50 TO 55
 KNOTS ONE HOUR EARLIER. A NEW REPORT JUST RECEIVED FROM THE ISLAND
 INDICATES THAT THE WINDS ARE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH. BETA IS
 GOING THROUGH ITS USUAL UP AND DOWN CYCLE IN THE CONVECTION AND NOW
 IT IS ON THE UPWARD TREND WITH A VENGEANCE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
 BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT BETA IS
 ABOUT TO BECOME A HURRICANE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
 BETWEEN NOW AND THE TIME OF LANDFALL OVER NICARAGUA OR EASTERN
 HONDURAS. THIS TREND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND WITH THE GFDL
 MODEL WHICH TENACIOUSLY MAKES BETA A 95 TO 100-KT HURRICANE.
  
 BETA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ABOUT 4 KNOTS.
 IT SEEMS THAT THE LEFT TURN INDICATED BY THE PARADE OF MODELS LED
 BY THE GFDL IS BEGINNING. IT WOULD BE FOOLISH NOT TO FOLLOW THESE
 ADVANCED MODELS...AND RIGHTFULLY SO...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
 BEEN TURNING BETA WESTWARD. THE CURRENT STEERING PATTERN WOULD
 SUGGEST A NORTHWARD TRACK BUT THE CURRENT WEAKNESS IN THE GULF OF
 MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS
 NEW PATTERN WILL ULTIMATELY FORCE BETA TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD
 CENTRAL AMERICA. 
  
 REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF BETA AT LANDFALL...THIS TROPICAL
 CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BRING TORRENTIAL RAINS TO PORTIONS OF
 CENTRAL AMERICA...PRIMARILY NICARAGUA...CAUSING CONSIDERABLE
 DAMAGE...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. PLEASE BE
 PREPARED FOR THIS EVENT.
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      29/0300Z 13.6N  81.4W    60 KT
  12HR VT     29/1200Z 14.0N  81.8W    65 KT
  24HR VT     30/0000Z 14.5N  82.5W    75 KT
  36HR VT     30/1200Z 14.5N  83.5W    85 KT
  48HR VT     31/0000Z 14.5N  84.5W    30 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     01/0000Z 14.5N  86.5W    25 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     02/0000Z 14.5N  88.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     03/0000Z 15.0N  90.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
  
 $$