610
FOPZ15 KNHC 230830
PWSEP5
HURRICANE ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006
0900 UTC WED AUG 23 2006
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 59 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
ISLA CLARION 34 16 45(61) 5(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) X(67)
ISLA CLARION 50 1 21(22) 2(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
ISLA CLARION 64 X 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 187N 1124W 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 187N 1124W 50 86 8(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
12 187N 1124W 64 49 19(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68)
24 199N 1144W 34 16 73(89) 6(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95)
24 199N 1144W 50 2 63(65) 9(74) 1(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76)
24 199N 1144W 64 X 37(37) 12(49) 1(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51)
36 207N 1160W 34 2 40(42) 37(79) 6(85) 2(87) X(87) X(87)
36 207N 1160W 50 X 12(12) 37(49) 7(56) 2(58) X(58) X(58)
36 207N 1160W 64 X 3( 3) 24(27) 6(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34)
48 213N 1173W 34 X 9( 9) 40(49) 17(66) 8(74) 1(75) X(75)
48 213N 1173W 50 X 1( 1) 19(20) 15(35) 5(40) 1(41) X(41)
48 213N 1173W 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) 4(22) X(22) X(22)
72 220N 1192W 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 19(32) 15(47) 3(50) X(50)
72 220N 1192W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 10(19) 1(20) X(20)
72 220N 1192W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
96 225N 1205W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 15(29) 4(33) X(33)
96 225N 1205W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10)
96 225N 1205W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
120 225N 1210W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 14(23) 4(27) X(27)
120 225N 1210W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
120 225N 1210W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 110 115 105 90 70 50 35
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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