739 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 192045
 TCDEP2
 
 HURRICANE PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016
 200 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2016
 
 Visible satellite imagery shows a ragged 20 nm diameter eye
 appearing in Paine's central dense overcast.  Infrared imagery does
 indicate quite vigorous thunderstorms, but with a somewhat
 asymmetric structure with the coldest cloud tops only observed in
 the western semicircle. The slightly stronger initial intensity of
 80 kt is a blend of a 77 kt subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB and
 a 90 kt value from ADT.
 
 Given that Paine is now traversing sub-26C waters while experiencing
 moderate southwesterly vertical shear, one would expect that it has
 reached its peak intensity.  But given this somewhat surprising
 hurricane, this is not guaranteed.  As Paine turns toward the north
 or north-northeast over the next two days, it will move over even
 colder SSTs, through a stable atmosphere, and into higher shear.
 Thus the NHC intensity forecast shows a rapid weakening - 35 kt in
 24 hours - with Paine becoming a remnant low in 48 hours, or
 sooner. This forecast is based upon a blend of the tightly clustered
 members of the IVCN intensity consensus technique, and is nearly the
 same as that from the previous advisory, despite the higher initial
 intensity.
 
 Paine is moving toward the northwest at 14 kt, steered between a
 deep-layer ridge to its northeast and an upper-level cut-off-low to
 its northwest.  The tropical cyclone should recurve to the north in
 about a day and then decelerate as it encounters a weak low-level
 steering flow near northern Baja California.  The NHC track forecast
 is between the previous advisory and the TVCN multi-model track
 consensus.
 
 A 1658Z ASCAT-B scatterometer pass showed that Paine was slightly
 larger in its 34 and 50 kt wind radii than previously indicated.
 The NHC wind radii forecast is based upon a blend of the larger
 climatology/persistence model - DRCL - and the smaller multi-model
 consensus technique - RVCN.
 
 Deep-layer moisture associated with Paine or its remnants is
 expected to spread over portions of the northern Baja California
 peninsula of Mexico and the southwestern United States during the
 next day or two.  This could enhance the rainfall potential in these
 areas.
 
 Even though the official forecast does not have Paine making
 landfall as a tropical storm, the system will move close enough to
 the west coast of Baja California that tropical-storm-force winds
 are increasingly likely.  Thus the Government of Mexico has issued a
 Tropical Storm Warning for portions of the northwestern Baja
 California peninsula.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  19/2100Z 22.8N 116.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
  12H  20/0600Z 24.7N 116.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  20/1800Z 26.9N 116.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  21/0600Z 28.8N 116.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  21/1800Z 30.1N 115.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Landsea/Stewart