580 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 040851
 TCDEP4
 
 HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014
 200 AM PDT THU SEP 04 2014
 
 Recent microwave images, including a NASA GPM overpass at 0516 UTC,
 indicate that Norbert has lost some organization during the past
 few hours due to easterly vertical wind shear.  The low-level center
 is in the northeastern part of the central convection with a
 mid-level eye displaced to the southwest of the low-level center.
 Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are unchanged at 77
 and 65 kt, and the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique estimates an
 intensity of 65 kt.  Based on these data, the initial intensity
 remains 70 kt.
 
 The microwave data indicate that the center of Norbert made a
 northward turn since the previous advisory.  The initial motion is
 a somewhat uncertain 325/5.  Norbert should continue on a general
 northwestward motion during the next three days around the
 southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge that extends westward
 across northern Mexico.  This part of the forecast track has
 been nudged to the east based on the current position and motion.
 After 72 hours, the guidance becomes more divergent due to
 disagreements in how Norbert interacts with a mid/upper-level trough
 over the northeastern Pacific.  The GFS and NAVGEM forecast Norbert
 to turn northward, while the ECMWF is forecasting a westward turn
 and a slower forward speed.  The other models are spread between
 these extremes.  The later part of the new track forecast is similar
 to the previous advisory, and is showing a slow northward motion as
 a compromise between the extremes.
 
 The dynamical models now suggest that moderate shear should
 continue for the next 24-36 hours, and as a result the intensity
 guidance shows less strengthening than 6 hours ago.  The new
 intensity forecast is thus nudged downward.  Norbert should start
 weakening by 48 hours as it reaches cooler sea surface
 temperatures, and the system is forecast to degenerate to a remnant
 low by the end of the forecast period.  The new intensity forecast
 is in best agreement with the intensity consensus.
 
 Moisture indirectly related to Norbert being pulled northward
 around the eastern side of the cyclone's large circulation is
 expected to spread across northern Mexico and into the southwestern
 United States during the next few days. This could result in heavy
 rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these areas. Please see
 information from your local weather office for more details.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  04/0900Z 20.5N 109.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  04/1800Z 21.2N 110.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
  24H  05/0600Z 22.2N 111.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
  36H  05/1800Z 23.1N 112.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
  48H  06/0600Z 23.9N 113.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  07/0600Z 25.5N 116.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  08/0600Z 27.5N 118.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  09/0600Z 29.0N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven