648 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 162036
 TCDEP4
 
 Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number   8
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018
 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018
 
 Satellite images indicate that Lane is trying to form a ragged eye,
 with an interesting mid-level mesocyclone rotating counterclockwise
 around the northern side of the circulation.  While Dvorak estimates
 from TAFB/SAB indicate Lane is already a hurricane, values from
 microwave data are a bit lower, and the cyclone only recently
 started to potentially form an eye.  The initial wind speed is set
 to 60 kt, close to the latest CIMSS SATCON figure.  Further
 intensification is expected, and given the warm waters, low shear
 and moderate mid-level humidity, rapid intensification is a
 distinct possibility.  The new NHC forecast is basically an update
 from the previous one, on the high side of the guidance, and could
 be conservative.
 
 The initial motion estimate continues at 275/11.   The synoptic
 pattern is well defined with a subtropical ridge persisting to the
 north.  While the ridge could weaken somewhat in a few days, a west
 or west-northwestward track is anticipated throughout the forecast
 period.  The spread in the guidance has decreased somewhat since
 the last advisory, and the newest model consensus has basically
 come in right on top of the last NHC forecast.  Thus the new NHC
 track prediction is nearly unchanged, staying close to a blend of
 the dynamical model consensus and the corrected-consensus aids.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  16/2100Z 10.6N 128.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  17/0600Z 10.9N 130.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  17/1800Z 11.4N 133.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
  36H  18/0600Z 11.9N 136.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
  48H  18/1800Z 12.5N 139.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
  72H  19/1800Z 13.8N 143.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
  96H  20/1800Z 14.8N 148.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 120H  21/1800Z 15.3N 152.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake