425 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 250831
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112008
 200 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2008
  
 IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF JULIO.  HOWEVER...
 SATELLITE IMAGERY...MEXICAN RADAR DATA FROM GUSAVE...AND CONTINUITY
 FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SUGGEST THE CENTER REMAINS OVER THE
 SOUTH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE CYCLONE IS PRODUCING
 STRONG CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C NEAR THE CENTER...
 ALTHOUGH THE GUSAVE RADAR DEPICTION OF THE CENTER IS RATHER POOR. 
 IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 35 KT.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/13.  JULIO IS WEST OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
 RIDGE OVER WEST CENTRAL MEXICO.  THE LARGE SCALE MODELS FORECAST
 THIS FEATURE TO BUILD WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF JULIO...WITH A
 MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING NORTH OF JULIO OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
 UNITED STATES.  THE RESULT OF THIS EVOLUTION WILL BE TO LEAVE JULIO
 IN AN AREA OF COLLAPSED STEERING CURRENTS BY 48-72 HR.  THE TRACK
 GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
 MOTION THROUGH 36 HR...THEN NOT SURPRISINGLY STARTS TO DIVERGE. 
 BASED ON THE GUIDANCE....THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE
 PREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING FOR JULIO TO GRADUALLY DECELERATE AS IT
 MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...THEN CALLING FOR IT TO STALL AFTER 48
 HR.
  
 WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF JULIO OVER THE WARM
 WATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE CYCLONE WILL BE ENCOUNTERING
 STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER 12-18 HR.  BASED ON THIS
 AND SOME CONTINUING LAND INTERACTION...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
 FOR JULIO TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HR. 
 NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECASTS THE REMNANTS TO SURVIVE MUCH
 LONGER THAN 72 HR...AND THUS THE FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION BY
 96 HR. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      25/0900Z 25.8N 111.8W    35 KT
  12HR VT     25/1800Z 27.0N 112.3W    30 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     26/0600Z 28.4N 112.9W    30 KT...OVER WATER
  36HR VT     26/1800Z 29.2N 113.2W    25 KT
  48HR VT     27/0600Z 29.9N 113.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     28/0600Z 30.0N 113.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN