039 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 301437
 TCDEP3
 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009
 
 JIMENA HAS A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN EXTREMELY COLD CLOUD TOPS. 
 DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 6.0 FROM BOTH TAFB MIAMI AND SAB
 WASHINGTON...WHICH EQUATES TO A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 115
 KT OR CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY.  THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
 AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
 DAYS...SO THE INTENSITY CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO WILL
 DEPEND LARGELY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE INNER CORE...WHICH IS NOT
 VERY PREDICTABLE.  NONETHELESS...SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
 STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED...AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOR
 THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND
 GFDL GUIDANCE.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THE GLOBAL MODELS
 SUGGEST SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THIS...ALONG WITH
 THE POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH LAND...SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING.  THE
 OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FROM 72 TO 120 HOURS IS BASED ON A
 MOTION NEAR AND OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  HOWEVER SINCE THERE
 IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST IN THE LATTER
 PART OF THE PERIOD...THE 4 AND 5 DAY INTENSITIES ARE ALSO HIGHLY
 UNCERTAIN.
 
 THE FUTURE TRACK OF JIMENA APPEARS TO DEPEND ON TWO MAIN FACTORS...A
 MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
 AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHWESTERN
 MEXICO.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW DRIFTING WESTWARD AND
 WEAKENING WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD...WHEREAS THE HWRF AND
 GFDL DO NOT WEAKEN THE LOW OR BUILD THE RIDGE AS MUCH. 
 CONSEQUENTLY THE GFDL/HWRF TAKE JIMENA BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE
 RIDGE...AND OVER BAJA OR MAINLAND MEXICO WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS
 PREDICT JIMENA TO MOVE TO THE WEST OF BAJA.  AS A COMPROMISE...THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS AND
 MOVES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE BAJA
 PENINSULA.
 
 INTEREST IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
 SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.  A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE
 REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA LATER TODAY.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      30/1500Z 16.3N 106.3W   115 KT
  12HR VT     31/0000Z 17.1N 107.1W   120 KT
  24HR VT     31/1200Z 18.4N 108.3W   125 KT
  36HR VT     01/0000Z 20.0N 109.4W   125 KT
  48HR VT     01/1200Z 21.7N 110.4W   125 KT
  72HR VT     02/1200Z 25.0N 112.0W    90 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     03/1200Z 27.0N 113.0W    60 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     04/1200Z 28.0N 114.0W    30 KT...INLAND
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH