768 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 230829
 TCDEP5
 HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006
 200 AM PDT WED AUG 23 2006
  
 ILEANA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN IN A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND
 OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT...AND IT IS A VERY IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING
 HURRICANE.  ENHANCED IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE BECOMING BETTER
 DEFINED WHILE EMBEDDED IN VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS.  THE UPPER-LEVEL
 OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED AND QUITE SYMMETRIC.  LATEST SUBJECTIVE
 AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES SUPPORT A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 100
 KT...I.E. A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
 SCALE.   THERE IS A WINDOW OF ABOUT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL
 INTENSIFICATION...DURING WHICH TIME THE HURRICANE COULD ATTAIN CAT.
 4 STRENGTH.   THEREAFTER...ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
 REMAIN LIGHT...COOLER SSTS AND DRIER AIR ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
 ABOUT WEAKENING.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS IN GENERAL
 AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. 
 
 INITIAL MOTION...310/16... IS FASTER THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN. 
 THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DEEP-LAYER
 FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A WELL-DEFINED HIGH PRESSURE AREA
 OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
 GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT A WEAKENING OF THIS HIGH AS A MID-LEVEL
 TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH CALIFORNIA.  ACCORDINGLY...THE
 FORWARD SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS PREDICTED TO DECREASE
 THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE
 TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...U.K. MET...AND NOGAPS TRACK AND ALSO
 SIMILAR TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.  LESS EMPHASIS IS BEING PLACED ON
 THE GFS TRACK...AS THAT MODEL HAS A FAR TOO WEAK INITIALIZATION OF
 THE HURRICANE.  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GUIDANCE
 INDICATES THAT THE STEERING FLOW WILL COLLAPSE.  THEREFORE LITTLE
 MOTION IS SHOWN IN 4-5 DAYS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      23/0900Z 17.5N 110.6W   100 KT
  12HR VT     23/1800Z 18.7N 112.4W   110 KT
  24HR VT     24/0600Z 19.9N 114.4W   115 KT
  36HR VT     24/1800Z 20.7N 116.0W   105 KT
  48HR VT     25/0600Z 21.3N 117.3W    90 KT
  72HR VT     26/0600Z 22.0N 119.2W    70 KT
  96HR VT     27/0600Z 22.5N 120.5W    50 KT
 120HR VT     28/0600Z 22.5N 121.0W    35 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH/FIORINO