491 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 240240
 TCDEP5
 
 Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number   8
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052019
 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019
 
 Dalila has changed little during the last several hours.  The storm
 remains very asymmetric with deep convection limited to the
 southeastern quadrant due to northwesterly vertical wind shear.  An
 ASCAT pass from several hours ago showed maximum winds of about 35
 kt, and since the system has been steady state, the initial
 intensity is held at that value.
 
 Dalila has just crossed the 26 degree C isotherm and it is headed
 for even cooler waters.  In addition, a field of stratocumulus
 clouds are seen in satellite images near and to the west of the
 system, indicative of the nearby stable air mass.  These conditions
 should lead to weakening soon, and Dalila is expected to become
 a tropical depression within the next 12 hours and a remnant low in
 a day or so.  The global models show the remnant low opening up into
 a trough in a few days or less.  The NHC intensity forecast is
 identical to the previous one and in line with the majority of the
 guidance.
 
 The storm is still moving northwestward, but it is gradually turning
 to the left.  A turn to the west-northwest is forecast during the
 next day or so, as the cyclone loses its convection and moves
 within the low-level easterly trade wind flow, and that motion
 should continue until the system dissipates.  The NHC track forecast
 is largely an update of the previous one and is near the various
 consensus models.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  24/0300Z 19.4N 118.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  24/1200Z 20.0N 119.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  25/0000Z 20.7N 120.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  25/1200Z 21.3N 121.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  26/0000Z 21.8N 122.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi