087 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 290249
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008
 800 PM PDT SAT JUN 28 2008
  
 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BORIS HAS REMAINED ESSENTIALLY
 STEADY-STATE DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
 PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF DEEP CONVECTION.  SATELLITE
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND SO IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. 
  
 LARGE SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
 WESTWARD NORTH OF BORIS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  SUCH A
 PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD WITH LITTLE
 CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  BEYOND 72
 HOURS...SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A NEW CYCLONE COULD FORM
 EAST OF BORIS POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE STEERING.  IN FACT...THE GFS
 MODEL SHOWS BORIS LOOPING BACK TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST DUE TO
 THIS SCENARIO.  SINCE THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS
 TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH
 THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...ALBEIT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.  
 
 BORIS IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WHICH
 IS CAUSING THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
 THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG OR EVEN INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24
 HOURS LIMITING BORIS'S DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL.  THE SHEAR IS
 FORECAST TO DECREASE IN A DAY OR SO BUT BY THIS POINT BORIS IS
 EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.  THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
 CALLS FOR SLOW WEAKENING.  
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      29/0300Z 14.9N 114.6W    45 KT
  12HR VT     29/1200Z 15.0N 115.8W    45 KT
  24HR VT     30/0000Z 15.1N 117.4W    40 KT
  36HR VT     30/1200Z 15.2N 119.1W    40 KT
  48HR VT     01/0000Z 15.3N 120.8W    35 KT
  72HR VT     02/0000Z 15.5N 124.0W    30 KT
  96HR VT     03/0000Z 15.5N 127.0W    25 KT
 120HR VT     04/0000Z 15.5N 129.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
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