174 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 241437
 TCDEP1
 
 HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
 800 AM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014
 
 An eye has been observed sporadically in infrared satellite imagery
 during the past few hours, and recent microwave data has also
 revealed a small pinhole eye in the 85-GHz channel and a 12-15 n mi
 eye in TRMM radar data. Satellite classifications are still rising,
 and Amanda is being initialized as a 65-kt hurricane based on Dvorak
 estimates of T4.0 from SAB and the UW-CIMSS ADT.  Amanda is
 intensifying rapidly, strengthening by 35 kt over the past 24 hours.
 
 Amanda is located over very warm water and in an environment of
 light vertical wind shear, and all indications are that this period
 of rapid intensification is likely to continue.  The operational
 SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index (RII) is indicating a 60 percent
 chance of a 40-kt increase in intensity during the next 24 hours,
 which is almost 15 times higher than normal.  An experimental Joint
 Hurricane Testbed version of the RII product, which includes
 additional environmental variables, is showing even higher chances
 of rapid intensification.  Based on this guidance, Amanda is
 forecast to continue strengthening rapidly, potentially reaching the
 threshold for major hurricane in about 24-36 hours.  After 48
 hours, southerly vertical shear is expected to increase, which is
 likely to cause Amanda's low- and mid-level circulations to
 decouple.  Therefore, fast weakening is indicated toward the end of
 the forecast period.  The updated NHC forecast is higher than the
 previous one during the first 48 hours to account for the high
 likelihood of continued rapid intensification, but it is largely
 unchanged thereafter.
 
 Amanda continues on its slow west-northwestward trek, and the
 initial motion is estimated to be 290/4 kt.  A mid-level ridge
 centered over Mexico should begin weakening soon, which will cause
 the hurricane's forward motion to slow even further during the next
 24 hours.  In about 2 days, the mid-level ridge is forecast to
 restrengthen over the western Gulf of Mexico while a mid-level
 trough amplifies near 130W.  This pattern change should push Amanda
 northward between days 3 and 5, but the speed is still likely to be
 fairly slow.  The GFS and ECMWF models are located on the right side
 of the guidance envelope on this forecast cycle, and the NHC
 forecast has therefore been shifted a bit to the right as well,
 especially beyond 36 hours.  This track is also to the right of the
 model consensus TVCE.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  24/1500Z 11.4N 109.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  25/0000Z 11.6N 110.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
  24H  25/1200Z 11.9N 110.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
  36H  26/0000Z 12.4N 111.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
  48H  26/1200Z 13.1N 111.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
  72H  27/1200Z 15.0N 111.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
  96H  28/1200Z 16.5N 111.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  29/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg