367 
 WTPA42 PHFO 201458
 TCDCP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM NEKI DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032009
 500 AM HST TUE OCT 20 2009
 
 NEKI HAS SHOWN IMPRESSIVE SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12
 HOURS. THE CLOUD TOPS OVER THE CENTER HAVE COOLED AND EXPANDED IN
 AREA AND A 1043 UTC TRMM PASS SHOWED A PARTIAL EYEWALL ON THE
 SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE CENTER. THE 1200 UTC FIXES FROM PHFO...SAB
 AND JTWC WERE 3.0...3.5 AND 3.5. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE IMPRESSIVE
 MICROWAVE IMAGERY...WE HAVE MADE THE INITIAL INTENSITY 55 KT...
 MATCHING THE MAJORITY OF THE DVORAK FIXES. 
  
 TROPICAL STORM NEKI CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF
 A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE PRETTY
 CONSISTENT IN SHOWING NEKI TURNING SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND
 SLOWING AS A TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. AFTER
 THE TROUGH PASSES...AND RIDGING ALOFT REBUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE
 CYCLONE...THE TRACK TURNS BACK TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST. WE HAVE
 KEPT THE TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE LATEST
 FORECAST KEEPS NEKI WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
 HOWEVER...THE TRACK ALSO TAKES THE CENTER OF NEKI CLOSE ENOUGH TO
 JOHNSTON ISLAND TO CONTINUE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THAT ISLAND.
 TOMORROW WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE
 PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE MONUMENT...NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN
 HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
  
 THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS NEKI OVER 28 DEGREE CELSIUS WATER FOR THE
 NEXT 120 HOURS. SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS 10 KT NORTHEAST SHEAR DROPPING
 TO ONLY 5 KT IN 24 HOURS. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD BE
 FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO ALLOW NEKI TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING. SHIPS
 GUIDANCE SHOWS EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH PROBABILITIES OF RAPID
 INTENSIFICATION. WE HAVE INCREASED THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IN
 OUR FORECASTS AND NOW HAVE NEKI REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12
 HOURS.
  
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      20/1500Z 13.3N 163.3W    55 KT
  12HR VT     21/0000Z 14.7N 164.9W    65 KT
  24HR VT     21/1200Z 16.4N 166.5W    75 KT
  36HR VT     22/0000Z 17.8N 167.5W    85 KT
  48HR VT     22/1200Z 18.8N 168.1W    95 KT
  72HR VT     23/1200Z 20.4N 169.4W   105 KT
  96HR VT     24/1200Z 21.5N 171.5W   100 KT
 120HR VT     25/1200Z 22.0N 174.0W    95 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER DONALDSON