102 
 WTPA41 PHFO 221503 CCA
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015
 500 AM HST SAT AUG 22 2015
  
 CORRECTED INITIAL MOTION VECTOR PARAGRAPH 2
 
 THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE...DESPITE BEING IN AN 
 AREA OF RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR...AND OVER SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER.
 ALTHOUGH KILO IS PRODUCING A PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH
 PROLIFIC LIGHTNING...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND A 1238Z AMSU PASS
 INDICATE THAT A POORLY ORGANIZED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
 CENTER LIKELY EXISTS...AND REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE EAST OR 
 NORTHEAST OF THE CONVECTION. LATEST DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY 
 ESTIMATES ARE UNSURPRISINGLY LOW...RANGING FROM TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY 
 TO T1.5/25 KT...AND THESE SUPPORT LOWERING THE CURRENT INTENSITY TO 
 25 KT. 
 
 KILO CONTINUES TO TREK STEADILY WESTWARD...STEERED BY AN EAST TO
 WEST ORIENTED MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED
 MILES TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL MOTION VECTOR IS 
 295/15 KT...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH 
 THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FROM 36 TO 72 HOURS...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
 IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP...THUS INDUCING A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED
 AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE WESTERN
 EDGE OF THE RIDGE ON DAYS 4 AND 5...STEERING CURRENTS WILL BECOME
 QUITE WEAK...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE 
 NORTHEAST. THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF 
 THE PREVIOUS AND LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE TVCN CONSENSUS.
  
 ALTHOUGH NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LIGHT...ANALYZED
 AS BEING LESS THAN 5 KT BY UW-CIMSS...AND NEAR 10 KT BY SHIPS...
 THE CYCLONE HAS NOT SHOWN ANY INCLINATION TO BECOME BETTER
 ORGANIZED...AND THIS COMPLICATES THE INTENSITY FORECAST. SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE 28C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...AND OCEAN HEAT
 CONTENT VALUES WILL INCREASE...PER RAMMB-CIRA ANALYSES. LATEST SHIPS
 GUIDANCE OFFERS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT VIEW OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE
 SHEAR PROFILE THAN EARLIER RUNS...AND NOW INDICATES 10 TO 15 KT OF
 NORTHWESTERLY OR NORTHERLY SHEAR WILL OCCUR FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
 MONDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
 IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH GREATER STRENGTHENING EXPECTED THEREAFTER
 AS SHEAR DECREASES. THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS WELL BELOW
 HWRF AND GFDL GUIDANCE...IS CLOSER TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM...AND 
 ANTICIPATES KILO BECOMING A HURRICANE BY DAY 5. ALL OF THIS MAY BE 
 IRRELEVANT IF KILO IS UNABLE TO EFFECTIVELY ORGANIZE IN THE SHORT 
 TERM...AND DEGENERATES INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW. WHILE 
 SURPRISING...IT IS NOT UNHEARD OF IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC BASIN.
 
 THE U.S. 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON WILL CONDUCT ANOTHER
 MISSION INTO KILO LATER THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AT
 12 HOURLY INTERVALS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE IF NEEDED. AFTER DEPARTING
 THE CYCLONE THIS MORNING...THE AIRCRAFT CREW WILL CONDUCT A SYNOPTIC
 SURVEILLANCE MISSION TO ITS NORTHWEST...IN ORDER TO PROVIDE VALUABLE
 DATA TO FORECASTERS AND NUMERICAL MODELS.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  22/1500Z 13.8N 158.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
  12H  23/0000Z 14.5N 160.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  23/1200Z 15.6N 163.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  24/0000Z 16.4N 164.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  24/1200Z 17.4N 165.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  25/1200Z 18.6N 164.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  26/1200Z 20.0N 164.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  27/1200Z 20.6N 163.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  
 $$
 
 FORECASTER BIRCHARD