607 
 WTNT45 KNHC 030902
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2005
  
 THE CENTER OF STAN EMERGED OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
 PENINSULA AT ABOUT 0430Z.  SHORTLY THEREAFTER AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
 HUNTER PLANE FLEW INTO THE CENTER AND MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE
 OF 1003 MB... THEN 1002 MB ON A MORE RECENT PENETRATION.  MAXIMUM
 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 43 KT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
 CENTER... IN THE BAND OF CONVECTION EMANATING OFFSHORE FROM THE
 NORTHERN COAST OF THE PENINSULA.  THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
 DEEP ENOUGH TO MIX THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE USING
 THE 80 PERCENT REDUCTION...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 35 KT AT THE
 SURFACE. ADDITIONALLY...CONVECTION HAS BEGUN BURSTING NEAR THE
 CIRCULATION CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD SOON BE
 OCCURRING THERE.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT... MAKING
 STAN A TROPICAL STORM ONCE AGAIN.
  
 THE AIRCRAFT LOCATED THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF
 THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION... AND THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION
 IS NOW WESTWARD... 270/9.  A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TEXAS
 TO THE CAROLINAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER STAN TOWARD THE WEST
 DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... WITH AN EVENTUAL SLIGHT BEND SOUTH
 OF WEST AND A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED.  MOST OF THE MODELS
 INDICATE THAT ENOUGH RIDGING WILL PERSIST TO TAKE STAN ALL THE WAY
 ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  HOWEVER... IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
 COMPLICATING FACTORS... INCLUDING INTERACTION WITH HIGH TERRAIN AS
 STAN APPROACHES THE COAST... A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF
 OF TEHUANTEPEC... AND LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
 EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... COULD CAUSE A SLOWER MOTION THAN
 INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE NEW FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
 THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT FOR A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT DUE TO THE
 INITIAL POSITION.
  
 STAN IS NOW OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
 MEXICO... AND IS BENEATH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AS DEPICTED
 IN GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL
 LIKELY LEAD TO STRENGTHENING.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
 CURRENTLY OVER THE APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
 TO DIVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 48 HOURS AND ERODE
 THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...BUT THE SHEAR WILL PROBABLY NOT INCREASE IN
 TIME TO WEAKEN STAN BEFORE FINAL LANDFALL.  ACCORDINGLY THE SHIPS
 GUIDANCE DIAGNOSES WEAK SHEAR AND FORECASTS A 65 KT HURRICANE
 APPROACHING THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO SHIPS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
  
 THE NEW FORECAST REQUIRES A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF
 COAST OF MEXICO.
  
  
 FORECASTER KNABB
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      03/0900Z 20.5N  91.5W    35 KT
  12HR VT     03/1800Z 20.5N  92.9W    40 KT
  24HR VT     04/0600Z 20.4N  94.2W    50 KT
  36HR VT     04/1800Z 20.2N  95.2W    60 KT
  48HR VT     05/0600Z 20.0N  96.3W    70 KT
  72HR VT     06/0600Z 19.5N  97.5W    30 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
  
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