040 
 WTNT44 KNHC 301448
 TCDAT4
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
 1000 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016
 
 Deep convection once again increased in association with the
 cyclone this morning, and satellite images show that very heavy
 rains continue over portions of western Cuba, where significant
 flooding is likely occurring.  However, the overall organization of
 the system has not changed much since last night.  Dvorak T-numbers
 from TAFB and SAB have not increased, so the intensity is kept at 30
 kt for this advisory.  Another NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is
 scheduled to investigate the cyclone this afternoon to see if the
 depression has become a tropical storm.  The dynamical guidance
 indicates that the vertical shear over the system will decrease
 slightly during the next day or so but, starting around 48 hours,
 westerly shear is forecast to begin increasing.  This should limit
 strengthening while the system approaches northern Florida.  The
 official intensity forecast was lowered slightly around 48 hours, in
 agreement with the latest intensity model consensus.  At the
 moment, there is no intensity guidance that makes this system a
 hurricane prior to landfall.
 
 Visible and microwave imagery, in particular a 1222 UTC SSMIS
 overpass, suggest that the center is located near the northern edge
 of the dense overcast, and the motion is estimated to be
 west-northwestward or 290/6 kt.  There is little change to the
 track forecast philosophy.  A mid-tropospheric trough that is
 expected to develop over the southeastern United States should
 induce a turn toward the north, and then northeast, with a gradual
 increase in forward speed over the next few days. This would bring
 the center of the cyclone across the northern Florida peninsula
 within 60-72 hours.  The official track forecast is about the same
 as the previous one, and is mainly a blend of the GFS and ECMWF
 predictions.
 
 Given the current forecast, a tropical storm watch may be required
 for a portion of the Florida Gulf coast later today.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  30/1500Z 24.0N  87.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  31/0000Z 24.5N  87.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  31/1200Z 25.4N  87.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  01/0000Z 26.9N  86.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  01/1200Z 28.5N  84.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  02/1200Z 31.6N  79.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  03/1200Z 34.0N  72.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  04/1200Z 36.5N  66.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch