064 
 WTNT44 KNHC 100240
 TCDAT4
  
 TROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192011
 1000 PM EST WED NOV 09 2011
  
 RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSITY OF SEAN HAS
 LEVELED OFF THIS EVENING. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CENTER
 HAVE WARMED...ALTHOUGH RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM THE U.S. NAVY
 FNMOC TC WEBPAGE STILL SHOWS A BANDING EYE FEATURE. BASED ON DVORAK
 CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT. GIVEN THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF SOME INNER
 CORE STRUCTURE...SEAN STILL HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN IN THE
 NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. THE NHC
 INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
 IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE LGEM AT 24 HOURS...SHOWING SEAN REACHING
 HURRICANE STRENGTH. AFTER THAT TIME...SEAN SHOULD WEAKEN DUE TO
 COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR. MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE CYCLONE
 BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS AND BEING ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL
 BOUNDARY SHORTLY THEREAFTER...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR EVEN SOONER.
 
 SEAN HAS JOGGED QUICKLY NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...AND THE INITIAL
 MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/07. SEAN SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD ON
 THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A STEADY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THURSDAY
 NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE
 SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING OFF OF THE EAST COAST
 OF THE UNITED STATES. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER AND A
 LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS
 DUE TO THE FASTER NORTHWARD MOTION THIS EVENING. AFTER THAT TIME
 ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH
 REMAINS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS UNTIL DISSIPATION.
  
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  10/0300Z 29.5N  70.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  10/1200Z 30.3N  70.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  11/0000Z 31.8N  68.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  11/1200Z 34.5N  64.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  12/0000Z 38.5N  59.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  13/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN