059 
 WTNT43 KNHC 192058
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005
  
 RITA IS CLOSE TO HURRICANE STATUS... BUT IT IS NOT QUITE THERE YET.
 THE STORM IS PRODUCING SOME VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...
 BANDING FEATURES IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS...AND
 INCREASINGLY WELL-ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW INDICATING LESSENING SHEAR. 
 THE OVERALL EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT DURING
 THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THIS OFTEN OCCURS DURING THE
 AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE MINIMUM PERIOD.  DATA FROM THE STEPPED
 FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...ONBOARD A NOAA HURRICANE
 HUNTER AIRCRAFT...RECENTLY INDICATED SURFACE WINDS AS STRONG AS 62
 KT ABOUT 25 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
 PRESSURE MEASURED BY DROPSONDE HAS BEEN HOLDING AT 994-995 MB...
 AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 60 KT.
  
 RITA IS ON TRACK... AND AS ANTICIPATED IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER
 TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...NOW AT 285/12. MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT
 AGREEMENT THAT THIS MOTION WILL CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT
 COUPLE OF DAYS...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT BEND TO THE WEST INTO THE GULF
 OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 30N. THE
 DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE LEFT
 OR WEST AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...BRINGING THE CONSENSUS INTO GOOD
 AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. OVERALL THE NEW SUITE OF
 GUIDANCE PROVIDES LITTLE REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST TRACK... EXCEPT TO SPEED IT UP JUST SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER...
 THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS OVER THE GULF REMAINS SIGNIFICANT...SINCE
 IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL
 MIGRATE FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD TO CURVE
 RITA NORTHWARD AROUND ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN
 FORECAST A STRAIGHT WESTWARD TRACK INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS...WHILE THE
 GFS AND GFDL FORECAST A NORTHWARD BEND TOWARD THE TEXAS/LOUSIANA
 BORDER REGION. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...IT MUST AGAIN BE EMPHASIZED
 THAT FORECAST ERRORS CAN BE QUITE LARGE AT THESE LONGER LEAD TIMES.
  
 EVEN THOUGH RITA IS NOT YET A HURRICANE...CONDITIONS APPEAR
 CONDUCIVE FOR IT TO BECOME ONE SOON...PRIOR TO REACHING THE GULF OF
 MEXICO. INTENSIFICATION TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE GULF OF
 MEXICO APPEARS PROBABLE...GIVEN THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE
 FORECASTING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO DOMINATE THE AREA
 AND PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY...OCEAN
 TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM IN THE GULF...AND NOT JUST AT THE
 SURFACE. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE
 OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH DAY 3...THEN CALLING FOR A PEAK AT 105
 KT OVER THE GULF IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE
 GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST AN EVEN STRONGER HURRICANE OVER
 THE GULF...AND THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
  
  
 FORECASTER KNABB
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      19/2100Z 23.3N  76.5W    60 KT
  12HR VT     20/0600Z 23.7N  78.4W    75 KT
  24HR VT     20/1800Z 24.2N  80.9W    85 KT
  36HR VT     21/0600Z 24.6N  83.5W    95 KT
  48HR VT     21/1800Z 24.9N  85.9W   100 KT
  72HR VT     22/1800Z 25.5N  90.0W   105 KT
  96HR VT     23/1800Z 27.5N  93.5W   105 KT
 120HR VT     24/1800Z 30.0N  96.0W    70 KT...INLAND
  
  
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