448 
 WTNT44 KNHC 300601
 TCDAT4
 
 HURRICANE MATTHEW SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
 200 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2016
 
 This special advisory is being issued in lieu of the scheduled
 intermediate advisory due to the rapid strengthening of Matthew
 during the past few hours.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
 aircraft reported flight-level winds of 99 kt in the northern
 eyewall at 700 mb, along with surface wind estimates of 80-85 kt
 from the SFMR instrument.  In addition, the central pressure has
 fallen to 979 mb.  Based on these data, the initial intensity is
 increased to 85 kt.  This also requires significant changes to the
 intensity forecast, which now calls for Matthew to reach major
 hurricane status in 24 hours and maintain it through 96 hours.  It
 is unclear how long the rapid strengthening will continue, and the
 revised forecast could be conservative.
 
 There are no changes to the forecast track from the previous
 regular advisory.
 
 It should be noted that despite the rapid intensification, the
 aircraft data, along with recent scatterometer data, show that the
 tropical-storm-force winds still extend only a short distance
 over the southern semicircle.  Based on this, no warnings are
 required for Aruba, Curacao, or Colombia at this time.  A warning
 might be necessary if the southern radii expand or if the center
 moves to the south of the forecast track.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  30/0600Z 14.1N  69.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
  12H  30/1200Z 14.0N  70.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
  24H  01/0000Z 13.9N  72.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
  36H  01/1200Z 13.8N  73.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
  48H  02/0000Z 14.1N  74.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
  72H  03/0000Z 16.4N  75.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
  96H  04/0000Z 19.7N  75.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 120H  05/0000Z 23.5N  75.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven