602 
 WTNT45 KNHC 162030
 TCDAT5
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052013
 500 PM AST FRI AUG 16 2013
  
 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF ERIN THROUGHOUT THE
 DAY. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL SWIRL
 WITH SMALL PATCHES OF CONVECTION. SINCE THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF
 THE CYCLONE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY LIES OVER 25-26C WATERS AND IS
 EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAIRLY STABLE AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH ERIN WILL BE
 MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
 WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A
 STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS THE SAME AS
 BEFORE...AND KEEPS ERIN STEADY STATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
 PERIOD. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...ERIN COULD
 DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW OR AN OPEN TROUGH DURING THE NEXT FEW
 DAYS...AS SHOWN BY SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
  
 ERIN REMAINS ON TRACK...AND IS STILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
 ABOUT 15 KT.  A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
 NORTHWEST IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE DEPRESSION FEELS
 SOME INFLUENCE FROM A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A SLIGHT
 BEND TO THE LEFT IS PREDICTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN ERIN LIES
 ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THEREAFTER...A TURN BACK TO
 THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS ERIN...OR ITS REMNANTS...MOVES TOWARD
 ANOTHER WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED
 NORTHWARD FOR THIS ADVISORY TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
 THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  16/2100Z 17.7N  33.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  17/0600Z 18.8N  35.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  17/1800Z 19.8N  37.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  18/0600Z 20.4N  39.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  18/1800Z 20.9N  41.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  19/1800Z 22.7N  45.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  20/1800Z 25.0N  50.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  21/1800Z 28.0N  53.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI