355 
 WTNT42 KNHC 270839
 TCDAT2
 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
 500 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010
  
 EARL HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST
 SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION THAT REFORMED AROUND 00 UTC HAS
 PERSISTED IN BROAD CURVED BANDS MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED
 LOW-LEVEL CENTER POSITION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT
 AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KT.  THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
 ENVIRONMENTS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND INDEED ALL
 OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW EARL STRENGTHENING THROUGHOUT THE
 FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST
 WHICH BRINGS EARL TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 2 DAYS AND SHOWS
 ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. 
  
 EARL CONTINUES TO MOVE ON A CONSISTENT WESTWARD PATH AND THE INITIAL
 MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/15. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO
 CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS
 STEERED BY A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 25N. EARL IS
 EXPECTED TO APPROACH A BREAK IN THE RIDGE...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED
 BY HURRICANE DANIELLE...IN ABOUT 3 DAYS AND THAT SHOULD INDUCE A
 TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
 SPEED. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR MUCH
 OF THE PERIOD AND THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY
 AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      27/0900Z 15.9N  41.6W    40 KT
  12HR VT     27/1800Z 16.2N  44.2W    45 KT
  24HR VT     28/0600Z 16.4N  47.4W    50 KT
  36HR VT     28/1800Z 16.6N  50.7W    55 KT
  48HR VT     29/0600Z 17.2N  53.9W    65 KT
  72HR VT     30/0600Z 19.0N  59.0W    75 KT
  96HR VT     31/0600Z 21.5N  62.5W    85 KT
 120HR VT     01/0600Z 24.5N  65.0W   100 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI