091 
 WTNT43 KNHC 110912
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004
 
 CHARLEY HAS MAINTAINED A SOLID CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST DURING THE
 PAST FEW HOURS...AND OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS
 EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT BASED
 ON DVORAK T NUMBERS OF 3.5 FROM TAFB AND AFWA.
 
 THE RAPID MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AT
 295/21...BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY BUT ALSO ON RECENT MICROWAVE
 PASSES THAT SUGGEST THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERN
 PORTION OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO
 CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24
 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...NORTH...AND
 EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE
 EASTERN UNITED STATES.  MODELS ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ALONG THE
 PREVIOUS TRACK BUT ARE ONCE AGAIN SUGGESTING A FASTER
 MOTION...BRINGING CHARLEY INTO THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
 WITHIN 48 HOURS...AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON
 DAYS THREE AND FOUR.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
 BY DAY FOUR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
 CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.
 
 THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF CHARLEY REMAINS FAVORABLE...AND THERE IS NO
 REASON WHY STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD NOT OCCUR...OTHER THAN
 BRIEF INTERACTIONS WITH LAND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  SHIPS
 AND GFDL GUIDANCE BOTH BRING THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN
 LESS THAN 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS...REACHING
 HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY 24 HOURS...WITH
 SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE
 WATERS WILL BE QUITE WARM AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR STILL WEAK.
 
 SINCE THE 36 HOUR FORECAST BRINGS THE 34 KT WIND RADII JUST SOUTH OF
 THE FLORIDA KEYS...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED AT THIS TIME FROM
 DRY TORTUGAS TO CRAIG KEY.
  
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN/KNABB
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      11/0900Z 16.9N  74.7W    55 KT
  12HR VT     11/1800Z 18.1N  77.3W    60 KT...OVER JAMAICA
  24HR VT     12/0600Z 19.9N  80.0W    65 KT
  36HR VT     12/1800Z 22.3N  81.8W    70 KT...OVER CUBA
  48HR VT     13/0600Z 25.0N  82.5W    75 KT
  72HR VT     14/0600Z 34.0N  79.5W    55 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     15/0600Z 43.5N  72.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     16/0600Z 50.0N  59.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
  
 $$