101 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 191449
 TCDEP2
 
 HURRICANE PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016
 800 AM PDT MON SEP 19 2016
 
 A 1008Z SSMI microwave pass showed that an impressive complete
 eyewall structure has developed in Paine.  While the eye is not yet
 apparent in the standard infrared imagery, a transient eye has been
 seen in the shortwave infrared pictures.  Subjective Dvorak, ADT,
 and AMSU intensity estimates have risen and now range from 65 to 85
 kt.  A blend of these give an initial intensity of 75 kt.
 
 Despite the very rapid intensification observed in Paine - 40 kt in
 24 hours - it is likely that the hurricane is at or very near its
 peak intensity.  Its forecast track takes it over quite cold water
 in just a day at the same time that the southwesterly vertical
 shear become moderate to high.  Thus the NHC intensity forecast
 shows steady weakening until Paine becomes a remnant low in 48
 hours or sooner.  This forecast is based upon a blend of the LGEM
 statistical scheme and the GFDL and COAMPS dynamical models, and is
 nearly the same as that from the previous advisory, despite the
 higher initial intensity.
 
 Paine is moving toward the northwest at 13 kt, as it is being
 steered between a deep-layer ridge to its northeast and an
 upper-level cut-off-low to its northwest.  The tropical
 cyclone should recurve to the north in about a day and then
 decelerate as it encounters a weak low-level steering flow just west
 of northern Baja California.  The NHC track forecast is based upon
 the tightly clustered members of the TVCN multi-model track
 consensus and is slightly faster than the previous advisory.
 
 Deep-layer moisture associated with Paine or its remnants is
 expected to spread over portions of the northern Baja California
 peninsula of Mexico and the southwestern United States during the
 next day or two.  This could enhance the rainfall potential in these
 areas.
 
 Even though the official forecast does not have Paine making
 landfall as a tropical storm, the system will move close enough
 to the west coast of Baja California that tropical-storm-force winds
 are possible.  Thus the Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical
 Storm Watch for portions of the northwestern Baja California
 peninsula.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  19/1500Z 22.0N 115.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  20/0000Z 23.7N 116.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  20/1200Z 26.1N 116.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  21/0000Z 28.3N 116.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  21/1200Z 29.9N 116.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Landsea/Stewart