858 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 311439
 TCDEP2
 HURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
 800 AM PDT THU AUG 31 2006
  
 THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS THIS
 MORNING...WITH SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 90 KT.  ADT
 ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS ARE STILL BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.  BANDING
 THAT WAS PRESENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY A FEW HOURS AGO NOW HAS
 DEGRADED SOMEWHAT.  AN 1138 TRMM PASS SHOWS A PARTIAL EYEWALL OPEN
 TO THE SOUTH...WHEREAS AN EARLIER PASS WAS MORE COMPLETE.  BASED ON
 THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 65 KT.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/5.  KRISTY IS IN A WEAK STEERING
 ENVIRONMENT.  A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
 OF THE CYCLONE...AND THERE IS A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO KRISTY'S NORTH AND NORTHWEST.  THIS SHOULD
 RESULT IN A FAIRLY SLOW MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER
 THAT...THERE COULD BE AN INTERACTION WITH THE CIRCULATION OF
 HURRICANE JOHN...CURRENTLY ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF KRISTY.  MODEL
 GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT...WITH THE NOGAPS SHOWING AN ALMOST
 IMMEDIATE INTERACTION AND THE GFDL SHOWING NONE AT ALL.  THE
 DEPICTIONS OF BOTH CIRCULATIONS IN THE NOGAPS SEEM TOO LARGE...BUT
 THE GFDL TRACK FOR JOHN IS AN EASTERN OUTLIER.  THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST TAKES A MIDDLE GROUND ON THE INTERACTION SCENARIO AND
 ANTICIPATES THAT BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...JOHN WILL SLOW
 THE WESTWARD PROGRESS OF KRISTY TO A CRAWL.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED
 THAT A MAJORITY OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST.
 
 WIND SHEAR OVER KRISTY IS PRESENTLY LIGHT...AND WATER TEMPERATURES
 WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 27C FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.  THIS SHOULD GIVE
 KRISTY AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE...ALTHOUGH NONE
 OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE GETS ABOVE 70 KT.  OUTFLOW FROM JOHN IS
 EXPANDING RAPIDLY WESTWARD TOWARD KRISTY...AND SHOULD BE ANOTHER
 INHIBITING FACTOR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED DOWNWARD FROM
 THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL ABOVE THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. 
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR KRISTY TO BE DISSIPATING WITHIN THE
 OUTER CIRCULATION OF JOHN LATE IN THE PERIOD. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      31/1500Z 17.9N 116.5W    65 KT
  12HR VT     01/0000Z 18.5N 117.3W    70 KT
  24HR VT     01/1200Z 19.3N 118.4W    75 KT
  36HR VT     02/0000Z 19.9N 119.6W    70 KT
  48HR VT     02/1200Z 20.0N 120.5W    60 KT
  72HR VT     03/1200Z 20.0N 121.5W    45 KT
  96HR VT     04/1200Z 20.0N 122.0W    35 KT
 120HR VT     05/1200Z 20.0N 122.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN