366 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 060804
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 AM PDT WED OCT 06 2004
  
 KAY IS BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. CONVECTION HAS
 WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND HAS BEEN
 REDUCED TO JUST A SMALL PUFF IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE
 LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS ALSO BECOME ELONGATED NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST
 WHILE MEANDERING NORTHWARD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT MAY BE
 GENEROUS GIVEN THE VERY POOR PRESENTATION IN INFRARED AND NIGHTTIME
 VISIBLE IMAGERY.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/04...EVEN THOUGH KAY HAS BEEN
 MOVING SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS
 LOSING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...ITS
 VERTICAL STRUCTURE IS BECOMING QUITE SHALLOW. AS SUCH...THERE MAY
 BE SOME ERRATIC MOTION AS INTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION MAY BRIEFLY
 REDEVELOP AND DEEPEN THE VORTEX AND CAUSE IT TO BE STEERED
 GENERALLY WESTWARD BY THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW. MOST OF THE NHC MODEL
 GUIDANCE TAKE KAY WESTWARD AND THIS SCENARIO HAS BEEN FOLLOWED.
 HOWEVER...SEVERAL OF THE MODELS TAKE THE CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST TO
 WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...WHICH WOULD LIKELY ONLY HAPPEN IF THE SYSTEM
 BECOMES VERTICALLY DEEP AGAIN...AND THAT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT
 THIS TIME.
  
 KAY IS GETTING HAMMERED BY MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL
 SHEAR...ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL ENTRAINMENT OF VERY DRY AIR WITH
 HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...MOST THE
 LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST IS BEING DRAWN INTO A WELL-DEFINED
 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR 13N 128W...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO
 THE EAST IS BEING DRAWN INTO A LARGE CIRCULATION NEAR 11N 101W. THE
 BOTTOM LINE IS THAT KAY MAY NOT SURVIVE THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF RATHER
 HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
  
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      06/0900Z 16.0N 117.2W    25 KT
  12HR VT     06/1800Z 16.2N 118.5W    25 KT
  24HR VT     07/0600Z 16.3N 120.1W    25 KT
  36HR VT     07/1800Z 16.3N 121.8W    25 KT
  48HR VT     08/0600Z 16.4N 123.8W    30 KT
  72HR VT     09/0600Z 16.5N 127.5W    30 KT
  96HR VT     10/0600Z 16.5N 131.5W    30 KT
 120HR VT     11/0600Z 16.5N 135.5W    30 KT
  
  
 $$