396 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 280838
 TCDEP3
 
 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015
 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015
 
 Satellite images indicate that Jimena is continuing to rapidly
 intensify.  The overall cold cloud canopy has expanded, with well-
 defined banding features around the central dense overcast, which
 has occasionally showed hints of an eye.  The initial intensity is
 raised to 70 kt, a blend of the 65 kt subjective Dvorak estimates
 and a 77 kt objective value from the UW-CIMSS ADT.
 
 The initial motion estimate remains 270/12 kt.  Jimena is expected
 to move westward along the southern periphery of the subtropical
 ridge for the next 24-36 hours.  After that time a turn toward the
 west-northwest is expected, with some decrease in forward speed
 likely late in the forecast due to a mid-latitude trough weakening
 the ridge.  The track guidance continues to be in remarkable
 agreement on the forecast for the next several days, with the NHC
 model guidance tightly packed near the 0300 UTC forecast track, so
 the new forecast is very close to the previous one.
 
 Environmental conditions are quite favorable for further
 strengthening, with very warm water, high mid-level moisture and
 low shear forecast for at least the next 48 hours. In response to
 these conditions, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index is
 forecasting a 61 percent chance of a 30 kt increase during the next
 24 hours. Thus, the official NHC prediction will continue to
 explicitly indicate rapid intensification for the first day of the
 forecast.  Most of the guidance shows the peak intensity around 48
 hours, so the NHC forecast will as well, although it remains below
 some of the guidance.  Beyond that time, slightly cooler SSTs are
 expected, along with lower upper-ocean heat content values.
 Therefore, slow weakening is indicated from days 3 to 5.  The
 official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory
 after adjusting for the initial strength, and lies between the
 forecasts of the SHIPS and LGEM models, which continue to perform
 quite well with Jimena.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  28/0900Z 12.1N 121.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  28/1800Z 12.2N 122.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
  24H  29/0600Z 12.3N 124.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
  36H  29/1800Z 12.8N 126.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
  48H  30/0600Z 13.6N 128.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
  72H  31/0600Z 15.4N 133.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
  96H  01/0600Z 16.9N 137.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 120H  02/0600Z 17.8N 140.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake