348 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 311444
 TCDEP4
 
 HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015
 
 The satellite presentation has improved during the past several
 hours. The eye, however, is not completely closed on microwave
 imagery at this time. There are several cyclonically curved
 convective bands around the center, and the outflow is symmetric.
 Both objective and subjective Dvorak numbers have continued to
 increase, and the average of these numbers leads to an initial
 intensity of 80 kt.
 
 The current environment of low shear and warm ocean is quite
 favorable for Guillermo to intensity further, and the NHC forecast
 brings the winds up to 100 kt in about 24 hours.  This forecast is a
 little bit higher than the SHIPS guidance, but follows the
 upward trend of the consensus. Beyond two days, the hurricane will
 encounter a less favorable shear environment as Guillermo approaches
 the prevailing upper-level westerlies. By the end of the forecast
 period, when Guillermo is expected to be nearing the Hawaiian
 Islands, the cyclone should have weakened to a tropical storm.
 
 The hurricane is racing west-northwestward or 285 degrees at about
 15 kt. The cyclone will likely continue on this track and speed for
 the next day or two while embedded within a layer of deep easterlies
 to the south of the subtropical ridge. After 48 hours, the hurricane
 is expected to slow down as it approaches the southwestern edge of
 the subtropical ridge. By then, the presence of weaker steering
 currents makes the track forecast uncertain, and even more uncertain
 as the cyclone approaches the Hawaiian islands in about five days.
 The NHC forecast is consistent with the solution provided by global
 models. The forecast is also near the consensus, but heavily
 weighted on the GFS and ECMWF models.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  31/1500Z 12.4N 132.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
  12H  01/0000Z 13.0N 134.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
  24H  01/1200Z 13.6N 137.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
  36H  02/0000Z 14.3N 140.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
  48H  02/1200Z 15.0N 142.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
  72H  03/1200Z 16.3N 145.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
  96H  04/1200Z 17.5N 148.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  05/1200Z 18.5N 152.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila