582 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 172100
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008
 200 PM PDT THU JUL 17 2008
  
 FAUSTO HAS EXHIBITING A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL APPEARANCE TODAY...WITH AN
 EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER RESIDING WITHIN A WIDE BAND OF DEEP
 CONVECTION AT LARGE RADIUS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 18Z WERE
 55 KT...BUT THE LACK OF CONVECTION VERY NEAR THE CENTER LEADS ME TO
 KEEP THE INTENSITY AT 50 KT FOR NOW.  THE CYCLONE APPEARS POISED TO
 STRENGTHEN...ALTHOUGH HOW FAST IT CAN DO THAT SEEMS TO DEPEND ON
 HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE NEAR THE CENTER SO THE
 SYSTEM CAN CONSOLIDATE.  RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY HINTS AT
 CONVECTION SLOWLY INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER...SO STEADY
 STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ALONG THE LINES OF THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. 
 INTENSIFICATION COULD CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 72 HOURS UNTIL THE SYSTEM
 REACHES COOLER WATERS...AFTER WHICH TIME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
 FORECAST.  THIS FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
 THE EXPOSED CENTER HAS MADE IT EASIER TO FIND THE CENTER...AND THE
 SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK OR
 ABOUT 290/13.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE HEADING IS FORECAST
 THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD...WITH ONLY A MODEST DECREASE IN
 FORWARD SPEED AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
 WEAKENS SLIGHTLY.  GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE
 OFFICIAL TRACK IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      17/2100Z 12.8N 105.1W    50 KT
  12HR VT     18/0600Z 13.4N 106.9W    60 KT
  24HR VT     18/1800Z 13.9N 108.7W    65 KT
  36HR VT     19/0600Z 14.4N 110.4W    70 KT
  48HR VT     19/1800Z 15.1N 112.1W    75 KT
  72HR VT     20/1800Z 16.5N 115.5W    80 KT
  96HR VT     21/1800Z 18.0N 119.5W    65 KT
 120HR VT     22/1800Z 19.5N 123.5W    55 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB