570 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 161434
 TCDEP5
 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052009
 800 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2009
  
 CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH OVER THE CENTER OF DOLORES AS THE
 CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COLDER WATERS. DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS
 FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 1200 UTC WERE 2.0. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
 DECREASED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
 IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT IT IS ASSUMED
 TO BE SOUTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER...WHICH STILL APPEARED TO BE 
 WELL-DEFINED IN A TRMM PASS AROUND 0800 UTC. THE INITIAL MOTION
 IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/16. THE TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN
 UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SHOWING A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK 
 TURNING MORE TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
 CYCLONE BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW. THIS TRACK IS BETWEEN THE
 HWRF AND GFDL AND SOUTH OF MOST OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS...
 WHICH TAKE A DEEPER CYCLONE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
 DEVELOPING ALONG 140W.
  
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON
 INTENSITY CONSENSUS. DOLORES COULD DISSIPATE EVEN SOONER THAN SHOWN
 HERE...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL...IF CONVECTION DOES NOT
 REFORM NEAR THE CENTER LATER TODAY.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      16/1500Z 18.9N 120.4W    35 KT
  12HR VT     17/0000Z 20.1N 122.6W    35 KT
  24HR VT     17/1200Z 21.4N 125.6W    30 KT
  36HR VT     18/0000Z 22.3N 128.3W    25 KT
  48HR VT     18/1200Z 23.2N 130.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     19/1200Z 24.5N 135.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN
  
 
 
 571 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 161434
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009
 800 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2009
 
 CARLOS HAS A SMALL AND POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT IS
 STILL PRODUCING SOME DEEP CONVECTION.  THE SYSTEM IS ON THE VERGE OF
 BECOMING A REMNANT LOW...AND WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED AS SUCH LATER
 TODAY.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 270/14.  A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS
 EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOLLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES UNTIL THE
 SYSTEM DISSIPATES.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      16/1500Z  9.8N 135.0W    25 KT
  12HR VT     17/0000Z  9.8N 136.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  24HR VT     17/1200Z 10.0N 139.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     18/0000Z 10.0N 141.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     18/1200Z 10.0N 144.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH