401 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 110844
 TCDEP3
 
 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014
 200 AM PDT WED JUN 11 2014
 
 Cristina continues to intensify.  The cyclone consists of a small
 central dense overcast in geostationary satellite imagery with
 cold-topped convection to -80C in the northern semicircle. There
 have been faint hints of eye or warm spot during the past several
 hours, and a 0329 UTC TRMM overpass showed a closed low- to mid-
 level ring of convection surrounding the center.  Satellite
 classifications from TAFB and SAB supported an intensity of 60 kt at
 synoptic time.  However, the initial intensity estimate is increased
 to 65 kt, based on UW-CIMSS ADT values now to 4.5/77 kt and the
 persistence of an eye feature that has warmed slightly and become
 better defined.
 
 The cyclone has been moving south of due west in response to a
 strong mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico, but the heading
 appears to have recently become more westerly.  The ridge is
 forecast to either remain in place or shift slightly eastward during
 the next few days, which should cause the track of Cristina to
 gradually bend west-northwestward. The track guidance is in
 generally good agreement on this scenario, but small differences
 in the location of the ridge over Mexico lead to slightly different
 motion headings.  The ECMWF maintains the center of the ridge a bit
 to the west of the GFS and other models, resulting in a solution on
 the southern side of the guidance envelope. The NHC track forecast
 is adjusted a hair to the left of the previous one in the direction
 of the ECMWF, which has continued to correctly forecast a more
 southern track.
 
 The environment in which Cristina is embedded remains ideal for
 intensification.  The cyclone is located underneath a mid- to upper-
 level ridge axis and over very warm waters.  The inner core
 structure has also become better defined, with the closed ring
 seen in microwave imagery signaling that rapid intensification is
 a possibility.  The NHC forecast is adjusted upward in the short
 term based on current trends, and thee is some potential for
 Cristina to become stronger than forecast. In about 60 hours,
 Cristina should encounter increasing southwesterly shear associated
 with an upper-level trough extending southwestward from California
 coast and should reach markedly cooler waters in about 4 days.  This
 should result in a pronounced weakening trend at the end of the
 forecast period and perhaps a quick demise.  The NHC intensity
 forecast is close to the multi-model consensus through 72 hours and
 near the LGEM after that time.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  11/0900Z 15.2N 104.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  11/1800Z 15.3N 105.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
  24H  12/0600Z 15.7N 106.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
  36H  12/1800Z 16.4N 108.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
  48H  13/0600Z 17.2N 109.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
  72H  14/0600Z 18.6N 111.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
  96H  15/0600Z 19.2N 113.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  16/0600Z 19.6N 114.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Kimberlain