205 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 300234
 TCDEP2
  
 TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022013
 800 PM PDT WED MAY 29 2013
  
 BARBARA CONTINUES TO QUICKLY WEAKEN WHILE MOVING FURTHER INLAND OVER
 THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.  CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED
 CONSIDERABLY...AND WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY RECENT REPORTS OF
 TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO
 BE 45 KT BASED ON A NORMAL INLAND DECAY RATE.  THE LOW-LEVEL
 CIRCULATION IS LIKELY BEING DISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
 SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND BARBARA IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
 TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST SHOWS BARBARA EMERGING OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF
 OF MEXICO AS A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...NONE OF
 THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW A CLOSED SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION AT
 THAT POINT...AND IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT BARBARA WILL DISSIPATE
 BEFORE REACHING WATER.  IN ANY CASE...ONCE THE REMNANTS OF BARBARA
 REACH THE GULF OF MEXICO...THEY WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
 REGENERATION.
  
 OF MORE IMMINENT CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT IS FALLING OVER
 PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.  EVEN THOUGH BARBARA IS
 WEAKENING...DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ITS REMNANTS IS
 LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
 AMERICA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.  THIS WILL CONTINUE A HEIGHTENED
 RISK OF DANGEROUS FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER THE REGION.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  30/0300Z 17.1N  93.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
  12H  30/1200Z 18.1N  93.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  24H  31/0000Z 18.8N  93.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG/BEVEN