554 
 WTPA42 PHFO 200903
 TCDCP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM NEKI DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032009
 1100 PM HST MON OCT 19 2009
 
 NEKI IS LOOKING MORE LIKE A TYPICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS EVENING.
 THE CONVECTIVE BANDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM HAVE BECOME LESS
 APPARENT WHILE ACTIVE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER. THE
 0600 UTC FIXES FROM PHFO...SAB AND JTWC RANGED FROM 2.5 TO 3.0. WE
 HAVE MADE THE INITIAL INTENSITY 40 KT...IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FIX
 RANGE.
 
 TROPICAL STORM NEKI CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF
 A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OBJECTIVE AIDS REMAIN
 FAIRLY TIGHTLY GROUPED...SHOWING A TRACK THAT CURVES LIKE A
 BACKWARD LETTER S. THE MODELS DIFFER MAINLY IN HOW SHARPLY THE
 TRACK CURVES. THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
 TRACK. NEKI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD WITH A GRADUAL
 TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AFTER 36 HOURS AND A SLOWING OF THE
 FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS DUE TO A TROUGH PASSING BY FROM WEST TO EAST
 NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES...AND RIDGING ALOFT
 REBUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...THE TRACK TURNS BACK TOWARD THE
 WEST NORTHWEST.
 
 THE LATEST FORECAST KEEPS NEKI WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
 ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE TRACK ALSO TAKES THE CENTER OF NEKI CLOSE
 ENOUGH TO JOHNSTON ISLAND TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE
 WATCH SINCE THE LEAD TIME REQUIREMENT IS 48 HOURS IN THE CENTRAL
 PACIFIC BASIN.
  
 THE FORECAST TRACK WILL KEEP NEKI OVER 28 DEGREE CELSIUS WATER FOR
 THE NEXT 120 HOURS. SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS 10 KT NORTHEAST SHEAR
 INCREASING A BIT TO 15 KT IN 18 HOURS...THEN DROPPING TO LESS THEN
 10 KT. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO
 ALLOW NEKI TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING. WE HAVE SLOWED THE
 INTENSIFICATION A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL HAVE
 NEKI REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 HOURS.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      20/0900Z 12.4N 162.3W    40 KT
  12HR VT     20/1800Z 13.8N 163.9W    45 KT
  24HR VT     21/0600Z 15.7N 166.0W    55 KT
  36HR VT     21/1800Z 17.3N 167.2W    65 KT
  48HR VT     22/0600Z 18.5N 167.8W    75 KT
  72HR VT     23/0600Z 20.1N 169.0W    80 KT
  96HR VT     24/0600Z 21.5N 170.5W    80 KT
 120HR VT     25/0600Z 22.0N 173.0W    75 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER DONALDSON