459 
 WTPA41 PHFO 220856
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015
 1100 PM HST FRI AUG 21 2015
  
 MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF THE CYCLONE 
 FEATURES PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION...AND AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW 
 PATTERN IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
 CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ REMAINS DISPLACED EAST OF THE CONVECTION.
 A U.S. 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON /WRS/ AIRCRAFT PROVIDED
 CENTER FIXES AND WIND RADII GROUND TRUTH THIS EVENING...AND THE
 CENTER WAS DETERMINED TO BE SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST OF WHERE SATELLITE
 IMAGERY WOULD LEAD ONE TO PLACE IT. THE AIRCRAFT DETERMINED MAXIMUM
 SURFACE WINDS WERE NEAR 26 KT...AND ASSUMING THE HIGHEST WINDS MAY
 NOT HAVE BEEN SAMPLED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT
 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  
 
 KILO CONTINUES TO TREK STEADILY WESTWARD...SOUTH OF AN EAST TO WEST
 ORIENTED MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED JUST A COUPLE
 HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL
 MOTION VECTOR IS 280/14 KT...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD MOTION IS
 EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. FROM 48 TO 72 HOURS... A
 WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP...WITH A SLOWING IN
 FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED. AS THE
 CYCLONE ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE ON DAYS 4 AND 5...IT 
 IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A VERY SLOW
 RATE OF FORWARD SPEED. THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK HAS ONCE AGAIN
 BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...SUBTLY AT
 FIRST...AND MORE NOTICEABLY ON DAYS 4 AND 5...WHEN THE FORWARD
 MOTION OF THE STORM WILL BE VERY SLOW. THIS REPRESENTS A BLEND OF
 THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE TVCN CONSENSUS...WHICH FEATURES THE
 GFS AND ECMWF ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE...AND HWRF AND GFDL ON THE
 RIGHT. 
 
 ALTHOUGH EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LIGHT...ANALYZED
 AS BEING LESS THAN 5 KT BY UW-CIMSS...AND NEAR 15 KT BY SHIPS...
 THE CYCLONE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME BECOMING VERTICALLY ORGANIZED.
 SHIPS GUIDANCE NO LONGER INDICATES THAT KILO WILL BECOME A HURRICANE
 WITHIN THE NEXT 5 DAYS...INSTEAD PEAKING NEAR 60 KT ON DAYS 4 AND
 5. WITH VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE FROM SATURDAY
 THROUGH TUESDAY...AND SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES...A
 SLOW INTENSIFICATION RATE IS STILL EXPECTED. WHILE THE OFFICIAL
 INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED DOWNWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE
 SHIPS GUIDANCE AND CURRENT DIFFICULTIES...IT STILL ANTICIPATES
 THAT KILO WILL BECOME A HURRICANE. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN
 CONSENSUS...WHICH FEATURES HWRF AND GFDL ON THE HIGH SIDE...AND
 SHIPS/LGEM ON THE LOW SIDE. 
 
 THE U.S. 53RD WRS WILL CONDUCT ANOTHER FLIGHT INTO KILO SATURDAY
 MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AT 12 HOURLY INTERVALS UNTIL
 FURTHER NOTICE...PROVIDING CRITICAL INSIGHT INTO KILO/S STRUCTURE
 AND INTENSITY. WITH THE G-IV AIRCRAFT TASKED IN THE ATLANTIC...A
 TRUNCATED SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION WILL BE CONDUCTED BY THE
 WRS AFTER DEPARTING KILO SATURDAY MORNING...IN ORDER TO SAMPLE THE
 STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  22/0900Z 13.3N 156.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  22/1800Z 14.0N 159.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  23/0600Z 14.9N 161.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  23/1800Z 15.8N 163.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  24/0600Z 16.6N 164.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  25/0600Z 18.0N 165.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  26/0600Z 19.5N 164.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 120H  27/0600Z 20.5N 163.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  
 $$
 
 FORECASTER BIRCHARD