302 
 WTNT41 KNHC 020810
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 4 AM EST THU DEC 02 2004
  
 DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE
 AND VERTICAL DEPTH NEAR THE CENTER AND IS NOW CONFINED TO THE
 SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. HOWEVER...DRIFTING BUOY 44623 NEAR THE CENTER
 OF OTTO INDICATES THE PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND WAS
 995.7 MB AT 05Z. BASED ON THE LOWER CENTRAL PRESSURE AND A DVORAK
 CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 FROM TAFB...THE INTENSITY IS
 BEING MAINTAINED AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 180/05. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS LESS
 DIVERGENT THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE AND IS IN GENERAL
 AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY MOTION THROUGHOUT THE
 FORECAST PERIOD. THE UKMET MODEL REMAINS THE LEFTMOST MODEL AND
 TAKES OTTO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE THE GFDL MODEL IS NOW THE
 RIGHTMOST MODEL AND MOVES OTTO SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...ALL THE MODELS
 AGREE ON WEAK RIDGING CONTINUING TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF OTTO...
 WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO CONTINUE LOSING LATITUDE. THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS
 CLOSE TO THE CONU AND GUNS CONSENSUS MODELS.
  
 MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT COUPLED WITH MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
 SHEAR IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON OTTO...EVEN THOUGH CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS
 ACTUALLY EXPANDED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
 HOWEVER...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER
 THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WHILE THE MID-LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DRY OUT
 EVEN MORE. AS SUCH...OTTO IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BECOME A
 NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS...EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE
 WILL BE MOVING OVER WARMER 25-26C SST WATERS.
  
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      02/0900Z 29.8N  49.9W    35 KT
  12HR VT     02/1800Z 29.0N  49.7W    30 KT
  24HR VT     03/0600Z 27.9N  49.1W    30 KT
  36HR VT     03/1800Z 26.8N  48.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  48HR VT     04/0600Z 25.9N  48.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  72HR VT     05/0600Z 24.7N  48.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     06/0600Z 23.5N  48.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
  
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