086 
 WTNT45 KNHC 050231
 TCDAT5
  
 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152012
 1100 PM AST THU OCT 04 2012
  
 OSCAR WOULD NOT WIN THE AWARD FOR BEST PICTURE ON SATELLITE IMAGES
 THIS EVENING.  THE LARGE SYSTEM HAS MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS
 EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION ALONG WITH AN EXPOSED CENTER.  A
 LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER...HAS FORMED A LITTLE
 CLOSER TO THE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  A RECENT ASCAT
 PASS HAD A SIZABLE AREA OF WINDS OF AROUND 40 KT ABOUT 90 N MI
 NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 45 KT
 AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE LOW BIAS OF ASCAT.  DESPITE OSCAR MOVING
 FASTER OVER WARM WATERS...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED
 DUE TO MODERATE OR STRONG SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE
 SAME TREND AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND DISSIPATION IS LIKELY IN ABOUT
 24H AS SUGGESTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/10 KT.  THE STORM SHOULD ACCELERATE SOON
 TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
 NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
 MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM SHOULD ABSORB OSCAR IN ABOUT A DAY.  THE MODEL
 GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST IS JUST A SHADE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC
 PREDICTION.
  
 STRONG SOUTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF
 THE COLD FRONT AFTER OSCAR DISSIPATES.  FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST
 INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE METEO
 FRANCE MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  05/0300Z 22.0N  40.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  05/1200Z 24.0N  37.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  06/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE