564 
 WTNT45 KNHC 150251
 TCDAT5
 HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
 1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008
  
 THERE HAVE BEEN NO ADDITIONAL RECONNAISSANCE DATA THIS EVENING...
 HOWEVER SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT OMAR HAS
 BECOME A HURRICANE. A NEARLY COMPLETE EYEWALL HAS BEEN SEEN AT TIMES
 ON THE CURACAO RADAR...AND OMAR HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A LARGE AREA
 OF VERY COLD CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER ALL DAY.  DVORAK
 CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 00Z WERE BOTH T4.0...OR 65 KT.
 IN ADDITION... THE CIMSS ADT IS RUNNING AROUND T4.5...AND A RECENT
 AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS 66 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE
 ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
 THAT THE SHEAR WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR
 SO...AND ALL THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE FORECASTS OMAR TO STRENGTHEN TO
 A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE IT EXITS THE CARIBBEAN.  IT SHOULD
 ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A
 60% CHANCE OF 30 KT OR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE...BUT IS A
 LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND VERY CLOSE TO THE ICON
 INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
  
 BASED ON THE RADAR IMAGERY THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/5.  THERE HAS
 BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. 
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
 SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
 EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE THE
 TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN.  THE HWRF AND
 GFDL CONTINUE TO LIE ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
 ENVELOPE...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET ON THE RIGHT...BUT THE MODEL
 SPREAD IS NOT LARGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
 CONSENSUS OF THIS TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL CLUSTER. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      15/0300Z 14.3N  68.1W    65 KT
  12HR VT     15/1200Z 15.1N  67.1W    75 KT
  24HR VT     16/0000Z 16.7N  65.4W    85 KT
  36HR VT     16/1200Z 19.1N  63.3W    90 KT
  48HR VT     17/0000Z 21.9N  61.1W    90 KT
  72HR VT     18/0000Z 27.0N  58.0W    80 KT
  96HR VT     19/0000Z 33.0N  54.0W    70 KT
 120HR VT     20/0000Z 41.0N  44.0W    60 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN