639 
 WTNT44 KNHC 300255
 TCDAT4
 
 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
 1100 PM AST THU SEP 29 2016
 
 Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that Matthew is
 strengthening. The estimated minimum pressure from a dropsonde
 is 983 mb. The SFMR instrument measured an isolated peak wind of
 77 kt in the northwest quadrant near the center. However, the
 flight-level winds measured in this mission so far only support an
 initial intensity of 70 kt.
 
 The cloud pattern is much better organized than 24 hours ago, and
 a recent SSMIS pass showed an eye feature. This was confirmed by the
 crew onboard the reconnaissance aircraft which reported a circular
 22 n mi eye open to the south.  Images from Curacao radar also show
 the center of the cyclone becoming better defined.  However, since
 some southwesterly wind shear is still affecting the cyclone, only a
 slight strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours.
 After that time, the shear is forecast to relax some, and the
 overall environment is expected to be more conducive for
 intensification. The NHC forecast continues to be above the model
 consensus, and is very similar to the forecast issued by my
 predecessor.
 
 Fixes from a reconnaissance plane and radar from Curacao indicate
 that Matthew is moving toward the west or perhaps just south of due
 west at about 12 kt. A strong ridge to the north is forecast to keep
 Matthew moving westward across the southern portion of the Central
 Caribbean for the next 2 days. After that time, Matthew will be
 located on the western side of the high and ahead of a mid-latitude
 trough over the Gulf of Mexico.  This steering pattern should force
 the cyclone to turn toward the north at about 5 to 7 kt.  The NHC
 track forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus, which in
 fact has not changed very much today, and does not deviate much from
 the previous forecast.
 
 Global models, primarily the GFS and the ECMWF, continue to show a
 strong hurricane in the vicinity of Jamaica, Cuba and Haiti in 3 or
 4 days.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  30/0300Z 14.1N  68.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  30/1200Z 14.0N  70.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
  24H  01/0000Z 13.9N  72.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  01/1200Z 13.8N  73.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
  48H  02/0000Z 14.1N  74.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
  72H  03/0000Z 16.4N  75.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
  96H  04/0000Z 19.7N  75.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 120H  05/0000Z 23.5N  75.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila