790 
 WTNT41 KNHC 150846
 TCDAT1
 
 HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   7...CORRECTED
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012016
 500 AM AST FRI JAN 15 2016
 
 Corrected 48-hr forecast position
 
 The overall convective pattern of Alex has continued to erode since
 the previous advisory. However, conventional and microwave satellite
 imagery indicate that there is still enough inner-core convection
 and a small radius of maximum winds to warrant keeping Alex as a
 hurricane for this advisory. Satellite classifications continue to
 decrease, and the initial intensity has been lowered to 65 kt based
 on a blend of the TAFB current intensity estimate of T4.5/77 kt and
 a current T-number of T3.5/55 kt.
 
 Alex has yet to make the turn toward due north, and the initial
 motion estimate is 005/20 kt. Other than to nudge the forecast track
 slightly to the right based on the more eastward initial position,
 there are no significant changes to the previous forecast track or
 reasoning. Alex is expected to be steered northward and then
 northwestward over the next couple of days within deep cyclonic flow
 in the eastern periphery of a large extratropical low centered over
 the northwestern Atlantic near Newfoundland. On the forecast track,
 the center of Alex and the core of strongest winds should reach the
 central Azores by late morning or early afternoon. The global and
 regional model guidance remains in excellent agreement on this
 scenario, and the official forecast track is a blend of the
 consensus model TVCN and input from the Ocean Prediction Center.
 
 Most of the coldest cloud shield has now shifted into the western
 semicircle, a signal that extratropical transition is likely
 beginning. With Alex now moving over 16C sea-surface temperatures,
 and with colder water still ahead of the cyclone, transition to
 an extratropical cyclone should be complete within the next 12
 hours. However, global models suggest that there will be enough
 baroclinic forcing to maintain hurricane-force winds after
 transition occurs despite the cold waters of the north Atlantic.
 
 The 34-kt wind radius was expanded in the northeastern quadrant
 based on quality wind reports from ship BATFR17. The wind field is
 expected to continue to expand as Alex undergoes extratropical
 transition at higher latitudes. The wind radii forecasts are based
 primarily on guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  15/0900Z 36.8N  27.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  15/1800Z 41.4N  27.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  24H  16/0600Z 48.7N  30.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36H  16/1800Z 56.0N  34.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  17/0600Z 56.5N  47.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  18/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart