477 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 032056
 TCDEP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014
 200 PM PDT WED SEP 03 2014
 
 Satellite images indicate that Norbert is still on an
 intensification trend.  While no eye is apparent in visible imagery,
 recent microwave imagery indicates that an eye is trying to form.
 The cyclone has a long curved band around the southern and western
 semicircle wrapping into the small central dense overcast.  A blend
 of the subjective and objective Dvorak estimates gives 60 kt as the
 initial wind speed.
 
 It is hard to find a reason why Norbert will not significantly
 intensify during the next day or so since it will remain over very
 warm waters, the shear does not appear to be that detrimental, and
 it already has many features of an inner core. Yet the best model
 guidance is lower than 6 hours ago, with no forecast above 80 kt for
 a peak intensity.  With so many favorable environmental factors and
 the low model bias observed this season (and this cyclone), the new
 NHC forecast will stay close to the previous one.  Weakening should
 begin in a few days when Norbert moves over cooler waters and into
 the more stable atmosphere of the subtropical eastern Pacific Ocean.
 
 After a brief westward track, Norbert appears to be moving more
 to the west-northwest, or 300/6.  Global models are in good
 agreement on a weakening ridge over northwestern Mexico forcing the
 storm to move northwestward over the next few days.  Model guidance
 is well clustered on a track offshore of Baja Califoria Sur, except
 for the GFDL which has a known northward bias in this region.
 Norbert is still expected to pass close enough to bring tropical-
 storm-force winds to portions of the state. The new forecast is a
 little farther south of the previous one during the first 24 hours,
 mostly because of the earlier westward motion.  Little change has
 been made to the rest of the forecast, which is just to the west of
 the dynamical track consensus.
 
 Moisture from the combination of Norbert and the remnants of
 Atlantic Tropical Storm Dolly is expected to spread northwestward
 across northern Mexico during the next couple of days, and into the
 southwestern United States over the weekend.  Heavy rain causing
 life-threatening flash flooding are possible in those regions.
 Please see information from your local weather office for more
 details.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/2100Z 19.6N 109.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  04/0600Z 20.1N 110.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  04/1800Z 20.9N 110.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
  36H  05/0600Z 21.9N 111.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
  48H  05/1800Z 23.0N 112.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
  72H  06/1800Z 24.5N 114.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  07/1800Z 26.0N 116.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  08/1800Z 28.0N 118.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake