255 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 242040
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112008
 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2008
  
 THE CENTER OF JULIO HAS REMAINED DIFFICULT TO LOCATE DURING THE DAY.
 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SUGGEST
 THAT THE CENTER OF JULIO PASSED VERY NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE
 SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AROUND 19Z. A COUPLE OF UNOFFICIAL
 REPORTING STATIONS HAVE REPORTED MINIMUM PRESSURES BETWEEN 1000 AND
 1003 MB...ALTHOUGH THE ACCURACY OF THESE MEASUREMENTS IS UNKNOWN.
 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED SO THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT. JULIO HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN
 INTENSITY AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON. WEAKENING SHOULD
 CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CIRCULATION
 INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA.     
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/10.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
 GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE WEST
 SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO.  THE GFS...
 UKMET...AND ECMWF ALL PREDICT THAT JULIO WILL SLOW DOWN
 CONSIDERABLY AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES A REMNANT LOW.  HOWEVER... 
 THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS FORECAST A FASTER NORTHWARD MOTION INTO
 NORTHERN MEXICO.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS A SLOW DOWN IN 2-3 DAYS AS JULIO
 WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM.
  
 MOISTURE FROM JULIO COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
 UNITED STATES IN A FEW DAYS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      24/2100Z 23.2N 110.2W    45 KT
  12HR VT     25/0600Z 24.4N 111.0W    40 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     25/1800Z 25.9N 111.9W    35 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     26/0600Z 27.4N 112.6W    30 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     26/1800Z 28.4N 113.0W    25 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     27/1800Z 29.5N 113.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN