809 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 300241
 TCDEP3
 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009
 
 WHILE THE SMALL EYE SEEN EARLIER IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY IS
 NOT APPARENT AT THIS TIME...SSM/I DATA AT 0106 UTC SHOWS IT IS
 STILL PRESENT UNDER THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  THE MICROWAVE DATA
 ALSO SHOWED AN OUTER BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTRAL CONVECTION
 THAT MAY BE THE PRECURSOR OF AN OUTER EYEWALL.  SINCE THE EYE IS
 NOT APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY...IT IS UNCLEAR IF THE
 HURRICANE IS STILL INTENSIFYING.  THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
 REMAINS 90 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
 TAFB AND SAB.  HOWEVER...THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.
  
 JIMENA HAS TURNED A LITTLE BIT TO THE RIGHT...WITH THE INITIAL
 MOTION NOW 305/10.  THE HURRICANE IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A
 DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
 SHOWING A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR
 27N111W.  THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE MEXICAN RIDGE TO BUILD
 NORTHWESTWARD AND PUSH THE WEAKENING LOW INTO THE PACIFIC...WHICH
 WOULD ALLOW JIMENA TO CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
 FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL AND HWRF
 KEEP THE LOW STRONG ENOUGH AND FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO TURN
 JIMENA NORTHWARD WITH A LANDFALL IN WESTERN MEXICO.  AT THIS
 TIME...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHICH SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT. 
 HOWEVER...THE GFDL HAS PERFORMED WELL IN SIMILAR PAST SITUATIONS
 AND THUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  ALSO...MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
 FORECAST JIMENA TO SHEAR APART IN THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST
 PERIOD...WHICH MAY NOT HAPPEN TO SUCH A STRONG AND DEEP HURRICANE. 
 THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST SINCE THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY...AND BASED ON THIS AND THE CURRENT MOTION THE NEW
 FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST AS WELL.  THE NEW TRACK IS
 NEAR THE THE GUNA...TVCN...AND TVCC CONSENSUS MODELS...AS WELL AS
 NEAR THE GFS DYNAMICAL MODEL.
 
 CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING DURING THE
 NEXT 48 HR...AS JIMENA WILL BE OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  THE ONLY
 POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR AT THE MOMENT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
 EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES.  ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO
 BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THIS TIME...AND THE NEW INTENSITY
 FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KT IN 36 HR.  IT
 IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
 CYCLES THAT JIMENA COULD GET STRONGER THAN THAT.  ON THE FORECAST
 TRACK...JIMENA WOULD REACH COOLER SSTS AFTER 48 HR...WHICH SHOULD
 CAUSE THE STORM TO WEAKEN.  THE LONGER-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS
 LOW CONFIDENCE...AS THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND INTERACTION AND
 INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER 72 HR MAKE THE FORECAST MORE
 PROBLEMATIC.
 
 THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS FORECAST WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT CABO
 CORRIENTES IN ABOUT 36 HR...AND IF THESE MODEL FORECASTS APPEAR TO
 BE VERIFYING WATCHES OR WARNING COULD BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT OR
 SUNDAY.  IN ADDITION...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK INCREASES THE THREAT
 TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN
 BAJA AND WESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      30/0300Z 15.8N 105.1W    90 KT
  12HR VT     30/1200Z 16.5N 106.2W   105 KT
  24HR VT     31/0000Z 17.3N 107.4W   120 KT
  36HR VT     31/1200Z 18.2N 108.4W   125 KT
  48HR VT     01/0000Z 19.5N 109.6W   125 KT
  72HR VT     02/0000Z 22.5N 112.0W   110 KT
  96HR VT     03/0000Z 25.0N 114.0W    75 KT
 120HR VT     04/0000Z 26.5N 117.0W    45 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN