295 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 091432
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 AM PDT THU SEP 09 2004
  
 BASED ON THE FIRST VISIBLE AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES...THE
 LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF
 PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...SO SOME RELOCATION IS NECESSARY FOR THIS
 ADVISORY.  THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS ALSO SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN
 IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  A MODERATE EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT IS
 FORECAST TO EVOLVE...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER FORWARD SPEED OVER
 THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE
 SLOWER BECAUSE OF THE REVISED INITIAL MOTION...BUT OTHERWISE FAIRLY
 SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
  
 ISIS IS NOT WELL-ORGANIZED AT THE MOMENT SINCE THE CENTER IS NEARLY
 EXPOSED ON THE NORTHEAST END OF A RAGGEDLY-SHAPED AREA OF DEEP
 CONVECTION. STRONG EASTERLY-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS IMPACTING THE
 STORM AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET AT 40 KT BASED ON
 DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KT...35 KT...AND 35 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
 AFWA RESPECTIVELY. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEARING
 WILL RELAX IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CURRENTLY
 UNIMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE OF ISIS AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SHEAR
 WILL PERSIST...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE
 CONSERVATIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.
 
 
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      09/1500Z 17.0N 112.7W    40 KT
  12HR VT     10/0000Z 17.3N 113.8W    45 KT
  24HR VT     10/1200Z 18.0N 116.2W    50 KT
  36HR VT     11/0000Z 18.5N 118.6W    50 KT
  48HR VT     11/1200Z 18.9N 121.5W    55 KT
  72HR VT     12/1200Z 19.5N 127.5W    50 KT
  96HR VT     13/1200Z 19.5N 133.5W    40 KT
 120HR VT     14/1200Z 19.5N 140.0W    35 KT
  
  
 $$