318 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 170232
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006
 800 PM PDT WED AUG 16 2006
 
 THE INTENSIFICATION TREND THAT HECTOR WENT THROUGH EARLIER IN THE
 DAY APPEARS TO HAVE TAKEN A TEMPORARY HIATUS.  CURRENT SATELLITE
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOW BECOME A CONSENSUS 3.5 FROM ALL THREE
 AGENCIES AND JUSTIFY MAINTAINING THE SYSTEM AT AN INTENSITY OF 55
 KT.
 
 HECTOR APPEARS TO HAVE TAKEN A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTWARD JOG
 DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 290/9...BUT THIS
 COULD BE PART OF A SERIES OF WOBBLES AS THE CONVECTION TRIES TO
 ORGANIZE.  NONETHELESS...THE SYSTEM HAS REACHED THE WESTERN
 PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND IS
 EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT
 COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY NUDGED FARTHER NORTH
 DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT
 MOTION...BUT THEN FALLS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND
 THAT. THIS TRACK IS ALSO SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN
 ORDER TO PLACE LESS EMPHASIS ON THE UKMET MODEL...WHICH APPEARS TO
 HAVE HAD A SOUTHWARD BIAS SO FAR.
 
 INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HECTOR MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO
 STRENGTHEN AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
 BECOME MARGINAL AT 48 HOURS AND THE STORM IS ALREADY MOVING INTO A
 MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OF STRATOCUMULUS TO ITS NORTHWEST.  THE
 FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
 GUIDANCE AND ONLY STRENGTHENS HECTOR TO 75 KT BY 36 HOURS. 
 THEREAFTER...INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE THEIR TOLL WITH HECTOR LIKELY TO BECOME A
 DEPRESSION BY 120 HOURS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      17/0300Z 14.3N 118.6W    55 KT
  12HR VT     17/1200Z 14.7N 119.7W    65 KT
  24HR VT     18/0000Z 15.4N 121.4W    70 KT
  36HR VT     18/1200Z 16.2N 123.5W    75 KT
  48HR VT     19/0000Z 17.0N 125.6W    70 KT
  72HR VT     20/0000Z 19.0N 129.5W    55 KT
  96HR VT     21/0000Z 21.0N 132.5W    40 KT
 120HR VT     22/0000Z 22.5N 134.5W    25 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG/PASCH