239 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 171501
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008
 800 AM PDT THU JUL 17 2008
  
 FAUSTO APPEARED EARLIER TO BE STRENGTHENING...BUT FIRST LIGHT
 VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOT QUITE AS
 DIRECTLY INVOLVED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION AS IT SEEMED.  IN
 ADDITION...A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY OF 45-50
 KT...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT DESPITE DVORAK
 ESTIMATES OF 55 KT.  THE OVERALL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE
 SAME...HOWEVER...WITH A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT
 COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM REACHES COOLER
 WATERS.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/12...AND A TURN TOWARD THE
 WEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED SOON AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
 GRADUALLY WEAKENS A LITTLE.  ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES IN HEADING ARE
 SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS...AND THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS ONE AND TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      17/1500Z 11.6N 104.1W    50 KT
  12HR VT     18/0000Z 11.8N 106.0W    55 KT
  24HR VT     18/1200Z 12.3N 108.1W    60 KT
  36HR VT     19/0000Z 12.8N 109.8W    65 KT
  48HR VT     19/1200Z 13.3N 111.5W    75 KT
  72HR VT     20/1200Z 15.0N 115.0W    70 KT
  96HR VT     21/1200Z 16.5N 118.5W    65 KT
 120HR VT     22/1200Z 18.0N 122.0W    60 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB