574 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 012036
 TCDEP5
 
 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052014
 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014
 
 Strong northwesterly wind shear persists over Elida, and the
 cyclone has become a tight swirl of low clouds devoid of deep
 convection. Satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease, and
 on this basis, the initial intensity has been lowered to 35 knots.
 These winds are probably confined to a small area to the north and
 east of the center. Global models indicate that the shear will
 continue and, in fact, most of them weaken Elida to a low or a
 trough in a few days. The NHC forecast is along the line of such
 models.
 
 Elida continues to be trapped in very weak steering currents, and
 it has been drifting southeastward during the past several hours.
 The steering flow is forecast by global models to remain weak during
 the next day or two, and little motion is anticipated during that
 period. A ridge is forecast to develop over Mexico beyond 3 days,
 and this pattern should force Elida or its remnants to begin moving
 slowly westward away from Mexico. This is consistent with the
 multi-model consensus trend.
 
 The government of Mexico has discontinued the tropical storm
 warning, however, a few strong squalls could still affect the
 coast during the next 12 to 24 hours.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  01/2100Z 17.2N 103.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  02/0600Z 17.0N 103.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  02/1800Z 16.8N 103.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  03/0600Z 16.9N 104.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
  48H  03/1800Z 17.0N 104.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
  72H  04/1800Z 17.0N 106.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  05/1800Z 17.0N 108.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  06/1800Z 17.0N 111.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila