645 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 290245
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032008
 800 PM PDT SAT JUN 28 2008
  
 VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT CRISTINA HAS MAINTAINED
 TIGHT BANDING AND MAY HAVE SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED DURING THE LAST FEW
 HOURS.  DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND
 SAB...WHILE A CIMSS MICROWAVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS SUGGESTS ABOUT 50
 KT.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT.
 
 CRISTINA'S CURRENT MOTION IS 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS
 BEING STEERED BY A DEEP TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CENTERED TO ITS
 NORTHEAST.  THE RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED BY ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE HWRF
 TO INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT...CAUSING A MOTION SOUTH OF DUE WEST IN THE
 NEXT TWO DAYS.  BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE
 SHOULD BE STEERED DUE WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE TRACK
 FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL AND GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE
 EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS WHICH UNREALISTICALLY HAS CRISTINA BECOME
 STATIONARY AND THEN ABSORBED BY BORIS.
 
 DESPITE THE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF CRISTINA DURING THE DAY...IT
 IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY. IN
 FACT...THE LAST FEW IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW WARMING CLOUD
 TOP TEMPERATURES.  THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE QUITE MARGINAL WITH SSTS
 AT 26C NOW AND COOLING TO 24C IN TWO DAYS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
 VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
 IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE NEGATIVE THERMODYNAMICS WILL PREVAIL.
 THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      29/0300Z 14.9N 126.1W    45 KT
  12HR VT     29/1200Z 15.0N 127.2W    45 KT
  24HR VT     30/0000Z 15.0N 129.0W    45 KT
  36HR VT     30/1200Z 14.8N 131.1W    40 KT
  48HR VT     01/0000Z 14.6N 133.2W    35 KT
  72HR VT     02/0000Z 14.5N 137.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     03/0000Z 14.5N 141.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     04/0000Z 14.5N 145.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER LANDSEA/RHOME