187 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 240232
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
 800 PM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014
 
 Amanda has organized quickly over the past few hours. Deep
 convection now wraps more than halfway around the estimated center
 position, and an AMSR-2 microwave pass a few hours ago showed the
 development of a mid-level eye feature. Based on the latest ADT
 estimate from UW-CIMSS the initial intensity has been increased to
 50 kt. Now that Amanda is developing inner-core structure, it seems
 likely that the cyclone will be able to take advantage of the
 favorable environment and intensify, possibly rapidly, during the
 next day or so. The SHIPS model shows the shear remaining 10 kt or
 less for the next 36 hours, and the SHIPS RI index shows a 58
 percent probability of a 30-kt intensity increase in the next 24
 hours. The official intensity forecast has been adjusted sharply
 upward and shows Amanda becoming a hurricane by 24 hours. A peak in
 intensity is shown at 48 hours, however, it is possible that
 Amanda could strengthen more than indicated here. After 48 hours,
 the shear will begin to increase ahead of an approaching trough and
 the cyclone will be moving over somewhat cooler waters, which should
 result in gradual weakening. The NHC forecast is a little above most
 of the guidance through 24 hours and is close to the IVCN intensity
 consensus after that time.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 290/04, as the cyclone continues
 to move slowly around the southwestern side of a weakening
 mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. This slow west-northwestward
 motion is expected to continue for the next 24 to 36 hours. A turn
 toward the northwest is shown around 48 hours, with a gradual
 northward acceleration expected late in the period as the ridge
 restrengthens to the east and a mid/upper-level trough approaches
 from the west. The track model guidance has trended somewhat faster
 this cycle, especially by day 5, and the official forecast has been
 adjusted in that direction. Otherwise, the new NHC track is largely
 an update of the previous advisory.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  24/0300Z 11.2N 109.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  24/1200Z 11.4N 109.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  25/0000Z 11.7N 110.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  25/1200Z 11.9N 111.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
  48H  26/0000Z 12.2N 111.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
  72H  27/0000Z 13.2N 111.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
  96H  28/0000Z 15.0N 112.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 120H  29/0000Z 17.0N 112.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan