141 
 WTPA41 PHFO 082044
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016
 1100 AM HST FRI JAN 08 2016
  
 DEEP CONVECTION AROUND TROPICAL STORM PALI DECREASED AND BECAME LESS
 ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A 1407 UTC SSMI PASS...FOLLOWED SOON
 AFTER BY A 1556 UTC SSMS PASS...SHOWED LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINED WELL
 ORGANIZED...WITH THE LLCC ALMOST 60 NM EAST OF DEEP CONVECTION. 
 THESE MICROWAVE PASSES ALSO SHOWED THAT PALI MOVED DUE WEST FROM THE 
 1200 UTC BEST TRACK POSITION...WHICH IS LIKELY UNREPRESENTATIVE. 
 THE 1200 UTC POSITION WAS THEREFORE REBESTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH AND 
 WEST TO GIVE PALI A SMOOTH CURVING TRACK TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST. 
 THE OVERNIGHT ASCAT-B PASS REMAINS COMPELLING...STRONGLY SUGGESTING 
 A 55 KT SYSTEM. UW-CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS IS ACTUALLY HIGHER...
 AT 58 KT...BUT THIS IS PROBABLY TOO HIGH GIVEN SYSTEM APPEARANCE IN 
 IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 
 3.0...45 KT...FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE CENTERS...LIKE LAST 
 TIME...BUT WE WILL ASSIGN A POSSIBLY GENEROUS 55 KT FOR INITIAL 
 INTENSITY AS A NOD TO THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS AND UW-CIMSS 
 CONSENSUS. 
 
 WITH THE REBESTED 1200 UTC POSITION TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT...TROPICAL
 STORM PALI IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES...AT 4
 KT. PALI REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW LATITUDE TROUGH INDUCED BY
 STRONG WESTERLIES JUST SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. TRACK GUIDANCE IS
 REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED...DEPICTING MOVEMENT GENERALLY TOWARD THE
 WESTNORTHWEST THROUGH 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
 THE SOUTHWEST FROM DAYS THREE THROUGH FIVE. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
 DIFFERS OVER HOW SHARP THE SOUTHWEST TURN WILL BE. THE FORECAST
 TRACK WAS BUMPED LEFT DUE TO INITIAL MOTION...BUT FOLLOWS THE SAME
 GENERAL CURVING TRACK BETWEEN GFEX AND TVCN CONSENSUS. PALI IS
 FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN BEYOND 48 HOURS AS STEERING FLOW
 WEAKENS...KEEPING THIS SYSTEM EAST OF THE DATELINE THROUGH DAY
 FIVE. 
 
 OCEAN TEMPERATURES AROUND PALI ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM FOR ADDITIONAL
 INTENSIFICATION...AND SHEAR ACROSS THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
 DECREASE ACCORDING TO SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS. HOWEVER...CONTINUED
 INTERACTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
 PALI AFTER 24 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST LIES WITHIN THE GUIDANCE
 ENVELOPE...KEEPING THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH DAY FIVE.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  08/2100Z  7.1N 172.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  09/0600Z  7.4N 173.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  09/1800Z  7.8N 174.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  10/0600Z  8.0N 174.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  10/1800Z  8.0N 174.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  11/1800Z  7.9N 175.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  12/1800Z  7.6N 175.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  13/1800Z  6.7N 176.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER POWELL