109 
 WTPA45 PHFO 200900
 TCDCP5
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP052015
 1100 PM HST SAT SEP 19 2015
  
 THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY...ALONG WITH
 SUBSEQUENT 11-3.9 MICRON FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY...INDICATE THAT THE
 DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO PRESENT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER DISPLACED
 TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM...WITH GOES
 UPPER-LEVEL SATELLITE WIND RETRIEVALS AND THE LATEST SHIPS/UW-CIMSS
 SHEAR ESTIMATES ALL INDICATING SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND 25 KT.
 SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 2.0/30 KT
 FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...WHILE THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT INTENSITY
 ESTIMATE IS 1.7/27 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT
 FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
 WITH THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGES CONTINUING TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY 
 OF MULTIPLE TRANSIENT LOW-LEVEL VORTICES ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN 
 LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...AND RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTING 
 A POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER 
 UNCERTAIN 015/08 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-
 NORTHEAST BETWEEN A BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF THE 
 INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE AND A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED FAR TO 
 THE NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE SAME 
 GENERAL TRACK AND SLOWLY GAIN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH SUNDAY AS 
 INTERACTION WITH THE DEEP TROUGH INCREASES. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH 
 AND THEN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND BEYOND...AS THE 
 SYSTEM BECOMES DRAWN INTO THE DEEP TROUGH. MOST OF THE RELIABLE 
 DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT THE FORECAST 
 TRACK DIRECTION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN 
 SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF MOTION ALONG THIS TRACK. IT 
 SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 00Z ECMWF DEPICTS A MORE WESTERLY AND 
 SLOWER TRACK THAN DOES MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE NEW OFFICIAL 
 TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND CLOSE TO THE TVCN 
 CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN IS NUDGED A BIT TO THE RIGHT AND 
 SLOWER...CLOSER TO THE TVCN...AT 72 AND 96 HOURS.
 
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. SHIPS AND GLOBAL
 MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE CURRENT SHEAR WILL REMAIN NEAR
 THE CURRENT LEVELS FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS...THEN INCREASE FURTHER
 AS THE CYCLONE MOVES CLOSER TO THE DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
 DESPITE THIS...THE LATEST SHIPS DOES SHOW SOME SLIGHT
 INTENSIFICATION BY 24 HOURS...BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO MINIMAL 
 TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE GFS ALSO DEPICTS SOME MODEST
 INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEW INTENSITY
 FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE...BRINGING THE CYCLONE TO 35 KT
 AT 24 HOURS AND THEN HOLDING INTENSITY STEADY THEREAFTER. THIS
 IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN SHIPS AND HWRF...BUT WELL BELOW THE GFDL.
  
 THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE EXISTING TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND
 WARNINGS POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
 NATIONAL MONUMENT. THE LATER PERIODS OF THIS FORECAST UTILIZED
 INPUT FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  20/0900Z 20.4N 174.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  20/1800Z 22.0N 173.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  21/0600Z 24.6N 172.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  21/1800Z 27.2N 172.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  22/0600Z 29.6N 172.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  23/0600Z 34.5N 173.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  24/0600Z 39.0N 176.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER JACOBSON