618 
 WTNT45 KNHC 042031
 TCDAT5
  
 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152012
 500 PM AST THU OCT 04 2012
  
 OSCAR IS STILL A HIGHLY SHEARED TROPICAL STORM.  SEVERAL LOW CLOUD
 SWIRLS ARE REVOLVING AROUND A CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND THE DEEP
 CONVECTION IS DISPLACED ABOUT 90 N MI TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
 THAT CENTER.  SINCE THE STRUCTURE AND CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS
 NOT CHANGED SINCE THE 1300 UTC ASCAT PASS...THE INTENSITY IS HELD
 AT 40 KT.  STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST NEAR THE
 CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
 THEREFORE ANTICIPATED.  OSCAR IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 36 HOURS
 NEAR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT IT COULD OCCUR SOONER IF THE
 UKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF MODELS ALL PROVE TO BE RIGHT.
  
 THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 035/10 KT.  OSCAR HAS BEGUN TO
 ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS ANTICIPATED...AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
 SPEED UP AS IT BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A
 DIGGING DEEP-LAYER LOW.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
 UNTIL THE EXPECTED DISSIPATION...EVEN IN FORWARD SPEED...AND THE
 UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
  
 STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...LIKELY TO GALE FORCE...ARE EXPECTED TO
 CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER OSCAR DISSIPATES.  FOR
 ADDITIONAL FORECAST INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
 ISSUED BY THE METEO FRANCE MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50
 LFPW.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  04/2100Z 21.3N  41.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  05/0600Z 22.8N  39.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  05/1800Z 26.0N  35.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG